Thursday, 27th March 2025
This weekend’s target races here
In ATC today….
Peter John Duffy is a pay-as-you-go tipster….
…. looking to make a quick buck….
…. by hoodwinking punters with sharp practice ….
Oh…. and there’s a hundred more just like him….
Read on….
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A question today….
…. from MB – a recent subscriber to the ATC column….
“Have you heard of Peter John Duffy? I got an email from him offering me tips on a ‘pay-as-you-go’ deal. What do you reckon?”
I’ve never heard of Peter John Duffy….
…. but I do know a bit about Pay-As-You-Go tipsters….
I think the Book of Revelation talks about these creatures….
…. and it doesn’t lead anywhere good….
You know the class animal I’m talking about….
…. that bloke who writes to you out of the blue….
…. that broken-down ex-jockey….
…. the trainer fallen on hard times….
…. a blowhard with an ear for ‘trackside whispers’….
…. that transparent wide boy with a pocketful of brass-necked lies to peddle…
…. all of them looking to rinse a few quid out of any gullible sap they can sink hooks into….
Across the years I’ve seen no end of these shysters come and go….
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I’ve seen it all….
I remember one who called himself ‘Gallops Mole’….
…. he claimed to spend his mornings crawling around the Lambourn undergrowth with a pair of binoculars….
Then there was ‘The Boffin’….
…. who spent 15 years – and sacrificed two marriages - constructing a predictive algorithm….
And ‘Psychic Paul’ (or some such clown)….
…. who got advance notice of race results via signs in the stars….
The back-story is always slightly different….
…. a variation on the general theme….
But – as an old punter of my acquaintance used to say….
“There are 101 ways to wrap up a turd – but it will never amount to an appropriate wedding present….”
Wise words indeed….
…. that might have been spoken with Pay-As-You-Go merchants in mind….
The spiel goes a little like this:
‘Dear Friend, I’m Larry Liar. You might know me better as ‘King of the Punters’. I’m a brilliant horse picker. No bookie will take my bets. I can’t get money on. I need YOU… to help me capitalize on an endless stream of winners I trot out for my exclusive list of valued associates….’
There was a time when I’d get a dozen approaches like this every month….
Not so many these days – but there are still plenty of hungry shysters out there playing this trick….
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How this thing works….
What Larry Liar wants you to do is to sign up to take his ‘winning selections’….
There’s no cost to you, of course….
…. the selections are given up-front and free of charge….
All you need to do is back the horses Larry doles out….
….. and make sure you put on £10, £20, or £50 for Larry….
If the selection wins – then your bet wins….
…. happy days….
And that bet you put on for Larry?
That won too….
…. and your job now is to send his richly deserved winnings on to him….
Everybody’s dancing….
…. everybody’s moonwalking….
But what if the selection loses?
Well, if that happens you don’t owe Larry Liar a brass cent….
In this scenario everybody stands their own losses….
You lose the stake for your own bet….
…. you lose the little drink you put on for Larry….
And Larry?
Well, Larry loses nothing….
…. nice work – if you can get it….
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Sharp practice alert….
Now Larry isn’t doing anything illegal….
… but there is a touch of sharp practice at work….
If his selection loses, he doesn't lose a penny….
…. but you lose your stake and the money you put down on his behalf….
If the selection wins, Larry gets a payout….
Sure, you win too – but you will lose over time….
Why?
Because you're getting bad value….
…. and here's why….
Let's say you're a £25 per bet punter….
You sign up with Larry and agree to put a £20 bet on for him….
You get hold of his latest selection – it’s a 4s shot….
You put £25 on for yourself and £20 for Larry….
The horse does the business – great stuff!
You make a £100 profit for yourself….
…. and you have another £80 to send to old Larry….
But look at what's going on….
…. you risked £45 of your own money to make a personal profit of £100 – the equivalent of a payout at a fraction over 2s….
…. and bad value bets like that….
…. soon add up to long term losses….
Fact: There's no way you'll make money long-term backing 4s shots
at just over 2s….
The deal with a pay-as-you-go tipster leaves you on the wrong side of the value fence….
Now, you might be a £100 punter….
…. and you might think the £20 you put on for Larry isn't going to make too much difference where value is concerned….
…. but you'd be wrong….
In my example, you'd be staking £120 of your money for a personal profit of £400….
…. but instead of getting 4s for your money, you'd be getting 100/30 or
thereabouts….
Not such drastic bad value – but bad value all the same….
Over the long-term striking bad value bets will make you a loser….
…. and – bear in mind – my last example assumes Larry’s horse wins!
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The bottom line….
Larry hasn’t got the confidence to bet his own selections….
…. at least not using his own money….
He wants to bet using your cash instead….
…. that way he stands to share the rewards without standing any of the risk….
He’s hoping your greed blinds you to this sharp practice….
…. he’s hoping you’re not switched on enough to notice that every bet you place on his terms is a poor-value bet for you….
…. and he’s hoping you don’t realize that punters who consistently place poor-value bets can only end up losing over the long term….
Larry thinks he’s a smart guy….
…. but really, he’s just another ‘I want to get rich quick’ hustler looking to turn a few bucks betting horses with money that he hasn’t had to earn and doesn’t mind losing – your money….
Returning to Peter John Duffy (whoever he is) – my advice is to steer well clear….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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