A good week at Aintree - now it's on to Ayr....

Wednesday, 9th April 2025

A good week at Aintree - now it’s on to Ayr….

Ayr targets on Friday & Saturday….

In ATC today….

We made a nice profit at Aintree – though not enough to satisfy the Alice in Wonderland brigade….

…. Senior Chief ran a belter in the Grand National – but here’s the downside….

…. I’ve got some observations to make on the Supercomputer predictions for the big race….

Oh…. and we go again at Ayr on Friday & Saturday…. 

Read on….

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You can’t eat value….

…. that’s what they say – and never were truer words spoken….

Beating the market to the best of the prices is central to getting in front on the bottom line across the long term….

It’s very much what we want to be doing….

…. and we do a fair bit of it here on ATC….

Take last week at Aintree as an example….

I picked out nine selections across the three days of the meeting….

…. eight of those ran….

…. and seven were sent off at prices shorter than when I put them up 24-hours ahead of the off….

In other words, we got value….

But value alone doesn’t get the job done….

The horses still have to win….

And if or when they don’t – it doesn’t matter what damn price you backed them at….

…. because a loser at 16s pays the same return as a loser at 12s – zero….

…. and we all go hungry….

I would have liked to have got a second winner on the week – but it wasn’t to be….

That said it’s not like the Aintree meeting was a bomb – not at all….

Wellington Arch was a good winner on Friday….

…. and Meetingofthewaters hit the frame in the Grand National….

All told – backing my selections at advised prices across the three days produced a betting profit of 10.2 points….

Of course, it’s never quite as straightforward as that….

…. because some punters go in late and miss the best prices….

…. whilst other times some punters get the rub of the green and land on a price better than advised….

It’s always swings and roundabouts to some extent….

…. but the general point is that last week’s selections banked a profit across the three days – which is always the primary objective….

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You can’t please all of the people all of the time….

What they don’t tell you is that there are some people out there that you’ll never please – whether you bend over backwards or walk on water….

…. readers who expect a 30+ point profit at every meeting that comes along….

…. plus another 10-15 points every Saturday that ever dawns….

…. readers who take the view that anything falling short of these far-fetched standards represents complete and utter abject failure….

These folk don’t want an analyst or a picker or even a God-honest trier….

…. instead, what they’re after is a magician or a clairvoyant….

I don’t know where they get their strange ideas from….

All I can tell you is they must be bloody difficult people to have to live or work with….

…. because you can’t get through to them – whether you speak in English, Chinese or double-Dutch….

…. it’s like there’s just solid bone where the brain’s meant to be….

…. like there’s just no capacity – none….

…. and their expectation of what can – or ‘should’ (often their favourite word) – be delivered is so far out of alignment with reality that corresponding with them turns into an experience straight out of Alice in Wonderland….

We might have the odd meeting that produces a 30+ point profit….

…. but that’s very much the exception rather than the rule….

The truth is that bottom-line progress in the race-betting game is always much more of a grind….

…. a bit here, a bit there and a bit more when it comes – interspersed with backwards steps and some bloody awful patches of form that take some stomaching….

That’s the reality….

…. the game is about graft, grind and grit….

…. slow and steady progress over time….

…. rather than hitting it out of the park for a crowd-pleasing home run every time you step out on to the plate….

Of course, some people can’t handle reality – or they don’t want to have to deal with it….

Instead, they want to live on Fantasy Island….

They want to live in the world as they think it ‘should’ be (there’s that word again)….

…. rather than live in the world as it is – and work with that….

It’s the root cause of most people’s problems in life – when you boil it all down….

Looking at it purely from a race-betting perspective….

…. if you think I ‘should’ be turning a BIG profit every weekend or at every big meeting….

…. it’s time to get your head from out of that rabbit hole, Alice….

…. because it ain’t going to happen, girl….

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Senior Chief ran a belter in the Grand National….

I put him up as my ante-post pick for the race back in mid-February – when there were still 87 horses in the race….

…. so it was pleasing to see him go as close as he did – he finished sixth….

The big disappointment is that he didn’t reward ante-post backers with a place payout….

…. only those who chose to back him in the day-of-race market – once the bookies had applied their Enhanced Place Terms – saw any betting reward….

I’ve had emails from one or two readers who expected to get paid out on 6th place for the ante-post bet….

…. but it doesn’t work that way….

Perhaps it should. Perhaps one day it will. It would certainly serve to reinvigorate ante-post betting on big-field races….

…. but until it happens we’re stuck with the situation as it stands….

Going in early on big races like the Grand National is an opportunity to lock in a big price….

…. but in so doing you do sacrifice benefits and concessions like Enhanced Place Terms that are only available closer to race day….

It’s those swings and roundabouts I mentioned earlier….

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What did you make of the ‘Supercomputer’ predictions for the Grand National – made a week before the race was run?

Based on 100,000 simulations of the race, the Supercomputer predicted the following result….

1st – Intense Raffles
2nd – Iroko
3rd – Stumptown
4th – I Am Maximus

I guess we have to offer up a small ripple of applause given that the algorithm found two placers from the field of 34….

I’d make just two observations….

One – Stumptown and Intense Raffles were both fundamentally undone by the drying ground which meant they couldn’t go the pace on the day. If the computer had been crunching the numbers and data closer to the off, factoring in better underfoot conditions, I wonder how much more accurate the predictions would have been. With the advent and application of custom-built Artificial Intelligence systems in bookmaking, I wonder how tough it will be to beat the bookmaker in the future. It’s a scary thought….

Two – that said the market may well remain the best guide going forward. The Supercomputer predictions were published in various newspapers on 31st March – a few days ahead of the Grand National. At that time the four horses selected by the computer were the four at the top of the market. Perhaps the odds were over-factored into the Supercomputer predictions. And had the Supercomputer been making predictions on Saturday morning, perhaps it would have simply mirrored market opinion….

Who knows? But AI predictive systems in horse racing and betting in general are worth keeping an eye on….

It’s the future, as they say….

…. and we punters will have to either embrace and adopt the tech – or go up against it….

Either way – it’s a new day….

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That’s all for now….

Back tomorrow with selections for Ayr on Friday….

Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd