It's time to dig out a 2000 Guineas winner....

Wednesday, 16th April 2025

It’s time to dig out a 2000 Guineas winner….

Upcoming target races….

In ATC today….

Take an informed view on this season’s 2000 Guineas….

…. consult and analyse 25-years-worth of 2000 Guineas race stats….

…. and find out what the winner looks like before going to post….

Oh…. and if you want to see this weekend’s target races then click the link at the top of the page….

Read on….

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It’s a quiet time – with the jumps winding down and the flat only just getting going….

Handicaps are my primary focus….

…. specifically – the most valuable big-field races....

But I’m a racing fan primarily….

…. and I’m not a slave to the rulebook – mine or anybody else’s....

Certain non-handicap races….

…. like the 2000 Guineas & the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket….

…. scheduled to be run on the 3rd and the 4th of May….

…. – are traditional betting targets for this column....

Trials for both races – and the Irish and French versions – are already underway….

We’ve had opportunities to run our eye over at least some of the potential contenders….

…. and now is a suitable time to highlight – in detail – what winners of the 2000 Guineas tend to look like before they go to post....

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I’ve studied the last 25 editions of the race….

Here’s the inside line….

When it comes to the 2000 Guineas, yard followers look in one direction only – towards Ballydoyle….

Aidan O’Brien is the most successful 2000 Guineas trainer in history….

…. he won four of the last ten renewals….

…. with Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018) and Magna Grecia (2019)….

…. and his last 59 runners produced nine wins and six placers…..

Richard Hannon is another notable name – his last 42 runners producing a winner and 11 placed finishers….

…. whilst Jim Bolger (interesting reflective interview here) is two wins and two places from just eight runners….

Moving on to notable sires….

…. Galileo’s was the main man – with 14 runners producing three winners and three placers….

…. but the sun has set on him….

…. and now it’s Dubawi who has the makings of what might become an interesting record….

…. his 11 runners to date producing four winners and three places….

Market pointers can be helpful too….

…. 19/25 race favourites were beaten – but 14 of the winners did emerge from the top 3 in the market….

Just six winners were sent off at odds bigger than 11s since 2000 (Night of Thunder was a massive outlier in 2014 at 40s)….

…. and it is worth noting that Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winning favourites and 11 losing favourites….

• All the last 25 winners had won at least one race….
• All were progeny of a sire that had won a G1 when racing….
• All had appeared at 7f or 8f last time out….
• 24 had raced at least twice….
• 24 had a winning strike-rate of 50%+….
• 24 had scored a career-best of at least 110 on the RPR scale (all hitting that level at 7f or 8f)….
• 24 had scored career best RPR in one of last 2 races….
• 23 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 8.8+ (20 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 9.1+)….
• 23 had won at 7f or 8f (all 23 had a strike-rate of 50%+ at those trips)….
• 21 had been foaled before April….
• 20 had already won a Group race….
• 20 had run in a G1 or a G2….
• 20 had raced no more than 5 times….
• 20 had scored an RPR of 85+ on racing debut….
• 20 had won a race worth at least £30k to winning connections….
• 19 had never finished outside the first 3….

No horse since Mystiko (1991) has done the European Free Handicap and the 2000 Guineas double….

Haafhd (2004) is the last to do the Craven Stakes and 2000 Guineas double….

2023 winner Chaldean was a rare recent winner of the Greenham ahead of winning the 2000 Guineas….

…. Frankel (2011) had been the previous such horse….

Something else to note….

…. 2024 winner Notable Speech is one of only three winners in the last 25-years not to have contested at least one Group race as a juvenile – the others being Golan (2001) & Makfi (2010)….

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We’re still more than a fortnight away from the 2000 Guineas….

…. but the market is taking shape….

…. and it’s often a case of first-up best-dressed….

…. because an early sighting of the stats gives you an opportunity to do a bit of spadework before the general mob gets in on the act....

It is fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner….

…. but they will certainly help you split the field….

…. and enable you to take an informed view on which potential runners look most like potential 2000 Guineas winners – and which don’t….

And remember – an informed opinion is a real edge in the market….

…. because most of the people you are betting against don’t have one….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd