Friday, 18th April 2025
Look out for me in your email box on Sunday morning – when I’ll have selections for Monday’s Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse….
In ATC today….
…. I swing the bat in all the big weekend handicaps….
The Queen’s Cup is the feature handicap at Musselburgh tomorrow….
…. the off time is 3.35….
…. and my pick of the prices is STRUTH at 14s….
I’m also on DAIN MA NUT IN in the 2.25 at Musselburgh – he’s up at 10s ….
…. I’m on MON NA SLIEVE in the 3.00 at Musselburgh – he’s up at 6s & 5s….
…. and I’m on LE MILOS at 11s in the 3.15 at Haydock….
That’s the summary….
…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….
Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….
Read on….
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The Queen’s Cup (3.35) is the feature handicap at Musselburgh tomorrow (3.35)….
…. and I’m going to wing it with STRUTH at the general 14s….
He did absolutely nothing last season – a situation that he’ll obviously need to bounce back from….
…. but – consequently – he’s dropped from a mark of 96 at the start of last term to 87 for the start of the current campaign….
…. just a pound higher than the lowest mark he’s ever raced from….
…. and he’s weighted to go well if back on his game….
Of course, that’s a big if….
…. but he has twice produced on seasonal debut….
…. and it’s worth noting that Mark Johnston won the race in 2019 and again in 2021 – both times with horses making their seasonal reappearance….
The second of those winners – Themaxwecan – was coming off a barren spell ran off a reduced mark – just like Struth….
…. and both previous Johnson winners overcame a wide draw – just as Struth will need to do tomorrow….
Trainer Charlie Johnston is not father, Mark – that much is true….
…. but I can’t imagine he’s changed the operation root and branch since taking the reins – and old habits die hard….
Struth is a potentially well-handicapped horse up at a price for a yard with form in the race – that’s the bottom line….
…. and I can see him getting across and dictating from the front under Silvestre De Sousa – a dab hand at that kind of job….
Lucinda Russell’s DAIN MA NUT IN likes to do it from towards the front end but missed the break over course and distance earlier in the week….
He had to do something he doesn’t ordinarily do and come through horses to finish a running-on third….
He didn’t look comfortable doing it at stages either – but still did enough to catch the eye at the finish….
…. and to produce what was a narrow career-best on the RPR scale….
I think he’s a fair bet at the 10s to improve again on that effort under Paul Mulrennan – whose won on him before at the track – in tomorrow’s Silver Arrow (2.25)….
He’s won over a mile at the track – and there’s a suspicion that trip might be his optimum….
…. but on the evidence from earlier in the week he can win over 7f – and he’s worth support….
If he gets into position early this time – he can grab the rail from stall 9 – he can run a big one from the front end….
MON NA SLIEVE at 6s & 5s is the pick for the Scottish Sprint Cup (3.00)….
Kevin Ryan’s charge is up 5lb to 82 for his course and distance win at the start of the month….
…. but he won that quite comfortably….
…. and when you think he was rated 92 at the start of last term….
…. he could still be very well-handicapped and capable of going in again….
He’s in stall 6 and I expect the same tactics – out quick, grab the rail, and issue the challenge to the rest of them….
The race between Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins for Champion Trainer is going down to the wire….
…. and every penny counts….
While there’s no point backing Skelton’s horses – or horses run by Mullins for that matter – simply because the trainers need winners…
…. I do think LE MILOS is a ‘live’ one tomorrow for Dan Skelton in the Middle-Distance Veterans' Handicap Chase (Series Final) at Haydock (3.15)….
…. and he’s well worth backing at the 11s - a price I think he can outrun….
On the face of it he’s out-of-form – well-beaten in two races in March and April….
…. but they were valuable handicaps at Newbury and Aintree….
…. races attracting a level of youthful and progressive opposition he’s simply not up to dealing with nowadays…..
But back down in the calmer waters of races restricted to the old-timers….
…. and running off an official mark of just 141….
…. this one-time Coral Gold Cup winner can enjoy another big day in the sunshine….
…. and land a useful few quid for his trainer into the bargain….
This has surely been a plan for him….
…. he ran a cracker to qualify for this final at Warwick back in February….
…. and I think he’ll really appreciate the flat track and the ground tomorrow….
One thing is for sure – there will be nothing left out on the track….
…. trainer, horse, and rider will be giving it everything they’ve got….
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Now, just to recap….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 3.35 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. In the 2.25 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. In the 3.00 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. In the 3.15 @ Haydock….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
