Wednesday, 23rd April 2025
In ATC today….
The bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown brings down the curtain on the jumps season for handicap fans.
…. it’s been a tough race for price-hunting punters in recent times….
…. but the historic record delivers pointers, angles, and clues that will help you isolate ‘live’ contenders at prices….
Oh…. and did you get paid out on places at Musselburgh & Haydock on Saturday?
Read on….
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I go in early doors with my selections to try and bag the best of the prices and place terms….
…. but nothing is set in stone….
…. because non-runners can play havoc with everything – Saturday being a case in point….
Le Milos finished 4th in the 3.15 at Haydock – good enough to have earned a place return with Sky Bet had all the horses down to run on Friday morning actually gone to post on Saturday afternoon….
…. but three pulled out – leaving just six in the race….
I can’t imagine Sky Bet actually paid out on the place part of bets on Le Milos….
…. but you never can be sure….
…. because sometimes – in these types of instances – bookmakers do make what seem like extraordinary decisions….
…. and there often appears to be no rhyme or reason to what they do….
My own theory is that they stand by the original place terms if the PR benefits of doing so outweigh what it costs them in liabilities….
…. in other words largesse in exchange for kudos (if it’s not too expensive)….
So I ask the question for information purposes – did anybody get paid out on Le Milos for Saturday’s 4th place finish?
Ditto Mon Na Slieve in the 3.00 at Musselburgh….
He finished 4th – good enough for a place payout with Sky Bet as the race stood on Friday morning….
…. but with two horses pulling out before the off I imagine they only paid out on three placers….
Again, I’d be interested to know how it turned out for you if you placed an e/w bet on Mon Na Slieve with Sky Bet….
Let me know at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Moving on now to the last big handicap of the 24/25 NH season….
…. Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown….
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Scrub the older horses….
…. those that have already seen plenty of action over fences….
Put a line through horses that have already enjoyed a day in the spotlight this term….
…. back something down the list of weights – something carrying 11-00 or less….
…. and back something that can race up with the pace and last home over a 3m5f trip punctuated by 24-fences….
Those simple commands will lead you to a shortlist of horses destined to get competitive in Saturday’s edition of the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown….
…. at least that’s what the most recent evidence – the last 11 renewals of the race – tells us….
Of course, the stats are not a 100% reliable selection method….
…. if the game were that simple we’d all be living life high on the hog like Denise Coates and Frederick Done….
But the recent stats do have a story to tell, nonetheless….
…. and that story helps us form general ideas about what kind of horses tend to prove most suited to this big race….
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Now, let’s take a look at the story of the stats….
Each of the last 11 editions of the bet365 Gold Cup were won by horses aged between 7 and 9….
…. only one had raced more than 12 times over fences – the 2023 winner, Kitty’s Light….
Now, that doesn’t mean older or more experienced horses can’t win the race….
….. just that the younger and less-exposed horses have had the whip hand in recent times and represent the percentage play….
Something else to consider….
…. most of those horses doing the winning were having their one big day in the sun of that specific season….
Quentin Collonges had gone out and won a decent pot in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster prior to triumphing in the 2013 renewal….
…. and in 2023 Kitty’s Light had won an Eider and a Scottish Grand National before heading to Sandown….
…. but the other nine had won no more than a single egg and spoon race or nothing at all that term….
And think on this….
Proven horses….
…. those that have already registered success in decent races….
…. tend to carry the bigger weights….
…. while the lighter burdens tend to be carried by horses yet to do the proving out on the track….
Saturday’s race has been one for the latter division in recent times….
…. eight more winners over the period carried 11-00 or less….
…. and three of those carried the bare 10-00 minimum weight….
The aberrations were Potterman in 2021….
…. winning under 11-09 for Alan King (having been awarded the race in the Stewards’ room)….
…. Hewick in 2022 carrying 11-04….
…. and Minella Cocooner who carried 11-09 to victory last year….
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Track position is something else to think about….
Quentin Collonges made all to win in 2013….
…. Henllan Harri did the same thing in 2017….
…. while The Young Master (2016), Step Back (2018), Talkischeap (2019), Potterman (2021), and Hewick (2022) were all up there at the front-end early doors….
Even the two winners that raced a little further back….
…. Hadrians Approach & Just A Par….
…. were never too far away from the pace….
Kitty’s Light – again – was an exception to the rule in the 2023 renewal….
…. and Minella Cocooner broke with convention last year….
…. but – generally – what you don’t want to be on is a horse that needs to be dropped out and delivered late….
Running on….
…. coming through horses….
…. and overhauling the front-end boys at the death….
…. hasn’t been a winning game plan in Sandown’s end-of-season showpiece handicap – more times than not….
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This race is no easy end-of-term assignment for punters….
…. it certainly hasn’t been the happiest hunting ground for the gnarled old fav-backers….
There’s been just one winning jolly since 2002….
…. and you can guess who bucked that big stat….
…. that’s right – it was Kitty’s Light in 2023….
That 1/22 favourite stat is strong….
…. but it hasn’t translated into a leisurely ride for price hunters….
Nine of the last 22 winners….
…. including 5 of the last 10….
…. were sent off in the top 3 of the betting….
‘Surprise’ results have been the exception rather than the rule….
In 2022 Hewick won at 16s….
…. prior to that Henllan Hari sprung a shock at 40s in the 2017 renewal….
…. and there were winners at 25s (x2), 20s and 16s between 2002 and 2008….
Quentin Collonges and Just a Par were there to be found at 14s in 2013 and 2015….
…. but this race has been no easy touch for on-the-nose big-price backers….
Even the each-way players have had it tough….
…. of the 61 horses to make the frame in the race since 2002 just 15 were sent off at 16s or bigger….
The numbers are a guide rather than gospel, of course….
…. and one edition of the race does not always inform the next….
…. Kitty’s Light was proof of that in 2023 – in many ways….
But, ahead of the race….
…. it is as well to know that the market has been hot on this race in recent times….
Not that yours truly is ever going to be put off by that….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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