Tuesday, 29th April 2025
In ATC today….
Lombron didn’t win – but I’m quite proud of that selection anyway….
…. a horse caught my eye at Haydock – and he’s very much one to keep in mind for the Dante meeting at York….
…. and I’ve got one for the bat swingers to have a think about in Sunday’s 1000 Guineas – she could run better than the market thinks at a MASSIVE each-way price….
Oh…. and if you’re playing in the Guineas races this weekend you might want to download this PDF….
Read on….
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Some selections please you more than others – even when they don’t win….
Lombron was one of those in Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown….
In the build up to the race….
…. I hadn’t heard him mentioned once….
…. and I hadn’t read a single line anybody else had written about him….
But I never care much what other people think – I’m bloody-minded (necessarily) that way….
…. and I like to walk my own path….
Obviously, other people must have fancied the horse – because he contracted six points in the market between me putting him up and the off….
…. and he so nearly vindicated my faith…. and the case I made for him on Friday….
But for a crucial mistake at one fence, he might have won….
Reader ZG hit the nail on the head….
“I've watched the race several times and each time I'm still expecting Lombron to win! Pick the worse spot you can think of to make a mistake and lose your irons at Sandown – the middle of the railway fences!! Blackmore did really well to stay on let alone finish a close second. It's a moral winner to my mind. Great pick from you and unlucky. It would have been nice in this slightly quiet spell. Keep up the good work!”
Lombron didn’t land the money – but it’s a selection I’m quite proud of nevertheless….
…. it’s a selection that typifies what I try to do on ATC – which is to dig out ‘live’ contenders the rest of the market is overlooking….
… and at nice prices….
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ZG mentions that we’re having a quiet time – and I suppose we are….
…. but it’s never going to be winners – or even placers – every week….
…. and losing sequences – where we leak points – are – always going to be part of the game….
I play in the most valuable handicaps – the most competitive races on the programme….
…. often with big fields….
…. and I always take on the fancied horses – which are frequently fancied for good reason….
So it’s not like I’m making life easy for myself….
This handicap betting game is no cakewalk at the best of times….
…. and let’s not forget that it’s particularly tricky at this time of year – with the flat only just getting into gear….
I can promise you one thing only on ATC – we will back plenty of losers….
…. but the winners come too….
…. and the placers act as mitigation in the meantime….
So stick around….
…. because this game is a marathon – not a sprint….
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One horse that caught my eye on Saturday was David O’Meara’s Blue For You….
…. who finished 3/10 in the C2 handicap at Haydock over 7f – beaten 1.25 lengths….
He wasn’t fancied – sent off at 25s….
The Racing Post sums up his performance thus….
“He has a record of one win a year and is fairly handicapped….”
I think he’s nicely handicapped on his current perch of 97….
…. and if he’s going to produce a win this term then it might very well come at York’s Dante meeting later this month….
York is very much his track….
…. he’s won three good handicaps there off marks of 96, 99 & 95….
…. finished second twice off 93 & 96….
…. and run with credit twice in the Hambleton – run at this month’s Dante meeting – off marks of 102 and 100….
He’s definitely one to shortlist early doors for this year’s edition of that raceoff 97….
His previous performances were produced on seasonal debut….
…. and getting Saturday’s run under his belt might just give him the extra bit of match fitness he needs to get his head in front this time around….
It’s also worth noting that he was drawn high both times he ran previously in the Hambleton….
…. and a lower stall over the extended turning 7f at York would be another big positive….
It’s just something for your notebook….
…. and if it’s not next month – keep him in mind at York for the rest of the season….
…. because that’s what I’ll be doing – he’s going on to my Watch List….
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The Guineas meeting at Newmarket provides the bulk of the interesting action this week….
…. and I’ve put all my statistical spadework for the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas into an easy-to-read and easy-to-print PDF….
…. which you might find useful if you plan to measure and assess all of this year’s runners against the statistical profile of winners in both races over the last 25-years….
The exercise is certainly worthwhile….
….it can alert you to qualified horses at nice prices in the market….
…. and I can tell you the process was at the root of my own success in 2021 when I did the big double….
…. picking out Poetic Flare for the 2000….
…. and then following up with Mother Earth in the 1000 the next day….
You can download the PDF here….
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I was a bit disappointed that there’s no Dubawi colt slated to run in the 2000 Guineas….
Why? Because he’s four wins from 12 runners in the race….
…. and his progeny are clearly well suited to what is a proper test of a 3yo horse at this early stage of the year – over what is the stiffest mile in world racing….
I always remember what Kieron Fallon said about the 2000 Guineas. He described it this way….
“The 2000 Guineas is never an easy race; it is like a war for horses and only the bravest win….”
To win four times from 12 runners, Dubawi obviously produces horses with the right minerals for the race….
…. but there are none for us to back this time around….
However, Elwateen looks set to represent Dubawi in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday….
…. and whilst Dubawi hasn’t managed to win that race with any of his female progeny to date….
…. and whilst Elwateen has only run once – in a novice on the AW at Kempton….
…. at prices between 50s & 66s she might represent an interesting each-way betting option for bat swingers who appreciate a recreational punt with low downside and maximum upside….
…. to a couple of quid – there’s no need to put the farm on the line….
Like Richard Hills – assistant racing manager for the Shadwell team – said earlier this week….
“She’s bred to win a Guineas, it’s whether she’s good enough.”
The lack of a trial is a concern – but that’s factored into the price….
…. she is her father’s daughter….
…. and let’s face it – her owner knows more about 1000 Guineas winners than we do….
…. having won the race with Mawj, Blue Bunting & Kazzia….
…. and having gone close with Ihtimal, Sundrop & Muwakleh….
They don’t know what she is….
…. but that’s the case with most runners in both Guineas races….
The bottom line is that she’s by Dubawi – and she could be better suited to the task on Sunday than the prices suggest….
Like I say – it’s one for the bat swingers to have a think about….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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