Two selections for Day 1 at the Dante meeting....

Tuesday, 13th May 2025

Two selections for Day 1 at the Dante meeting….

This week’s target races….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat in all the big handicaps run on day 1 of York’s Dante meeting….

…. I’m on PLAGE DE HAVRE at 7s in the 2.10….

…. and I’m on COMMANCHE FALLS at 10s in the 2.42….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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Tomorrow is Day 1 of York’s Dante meeting….

…. I’m targeting the two big handicaps that open the card….

…. and without further ado….

PLAGE DE HAVRE at the general 7s is my pick for the Jorvik Handicap at 2.10….

Pulled-up last time out never reads too well on the form card….

…. but in the All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap at Newcastle in April Andrew Balding’s charge helped to set some strong early and middle fractions….

…. too strong as it turned out – and he was running out of petrol when Oisin Murphy pulled him up as a precaution – when he thought something was amiss….

The horse that took advantage – Wonder Legend – had beaten Plage De Havre just under three lengths the time before at Wolverhampton in a slow run race….

…. putting on a bit of a spurt with a circuit to go and again on the last bend –catching Andrew Balding’s horse out a little on each occasion….

Plage De Havre couldn’t get back to Wonder Legend – described by his trainer as in the form of his life – but he did well to put the others to bed in the closing stages off in a race run at such pedestrian pace….

They looked like two good horses in the making and given that Wonder Legend is now rated 108 whilst Plage De Havre still gets to run off 92 – you’d think he might be pretty well-handicapped….

He’s back down to 12f – which isn’t unsuitable – and it will be interesting to see how Oisin Murphy rides him this time around from stall 1.

…. perhaps the longer trip did for him as much as the early fractions last time….

Whatever, he’s an interesting contender who could be on a very nice mark….

At 8 years of age COMMANCHE FALLS is the old boy in the Churchill Tyres Handicap at 2.42….

…. but I think he’s worth a bet at the general 10s….

He probably isn’t what he was in his absolute pomp….

…. but a horse like Summerghand is a good recent example of what these quality veteran sprinters can keep on producing in big handicaps as they advance up the ageing ladder….

He’s not short of back class – with two Stewards’ Cup wins under his belt….

…. and a low water handicap mark of 102 gives him a really competitive looking edge at York….

…. a track where he’s produced multiple good efforts on fast ground over this trip – in handicap and pattern races – off much bigger marks….

I’d expect him to come on for his reappearance at Leicester….

…. I think he starts on a decent part of the track – to my reckoning the lowest stalls have the edge at York over 6f across the long term….

…. and this column has long drawn attention to trainer Michael Dods and his record in the good handicaps at York (C2) at trips short of a mile….

Going back to 2010 his record reads 18 winners & 20 additional placers from 88 participants….

…. a win strike rate of 20.45% and a total place strike rate of 43.18%….

…. excellent metrics – considering the pool of races we’re analysing….

Bottom line – if Dods has a well-handicapped horse, it will often show up and deliver at York – and Commanche Falls looks potentially well-handicapped to me….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back with tomorrow with picks for Day 2 at York’s Dante meeting….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd