Swinging the bat at Newbury on Saturday....

Friday, 16th May 2025

Swinging the bat at Newbury on Saturday….

Picks for Friday here….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat in all the biggest betting heats at Newbury on Saturday afternoon….

I’m on SADDADD in the 2.00 – he’s up at 5s….

…. I’m on RUN BOY RUN at 17/2 in the 3.45….

…. and I’m on EPICTETUS at 40s in the 4.20….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

-----

A turnout of just 10 for the London Gold Cup at Newbury at 2.00 is disappointing….

…. when you consider that there’s a prize fund of £100k up for grabs….

…. and that the race is just about the best middle-distance handicap for 3yos that the British programme has to offer….

Nevertheless, we work with what’s put in front of us and Roger Varian’s SADDADD is the one for me at 5s….

He won his maiden over a mile at Southwell on the AW in December – beating Royal Favour who subsequently placed in Group company….

Next time at Kempton he was in the wrong place at the rear of the field turning for home but stayed on to finish 5 lengths in arrears to Opera Ballo – another subsequent placer at Group level….

What he proved at Kempton is that he would be better switched up to 10f ….

…. and he stepped up at Newbury – his first go on turf – on seasonal debut last month where he ran well perfectly well – just finding Gethin too good….

There was no disgrace in that defeat – Gethin had been in the Derby and holds an entry for the Arc….

…. so, we know they think he’s pretty good at home – a horse with serious G1 potential….

What the race told Varian is that Saddadd isn’t a Derby horse….

His sights have been lowered, and he turns out here in his first handicap to contest a race Roger Varian won with Defoe – this column was on – back in 2017….
 
He’s rated 95 – so it’s no penalty kick – and there are plenty in behind him that he must concede weight to….

…. but making a case for them – without reaching – ain’t easy….

…. and I’m sticking with the higher-rated horse and backing him to continue his progression….

Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride. He’s 4 from 10 this term for Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum – and I take his presence in the saddle as a positive….

----

I don’t know who sorts out ITV’s scheduling….

…. but two of the best handicaps at Newbury don’t even make it on to the screen tomorrow….

…. while poorer events at Newmarket do….

Don’t ask me how it works – the world stopped making sense to me in about 1992….

…. and all I can tell you is that the two events that make appeal at Newbury have only been priced up by one bookmaker – William Hill (which is to their credit)….

Now I could wait it out until about teatime for other bookies to follow suit and produce prices….

…. which I’ve done before….

…. only to rediscover for the umpteenth time that bookmakers are sheep and blindly play follow my leader….

Nobody going up with prices is going to be too far above or below where William Hill is pitched this morning….

…. until any significant money comes – at which point they will all pretty much move together again anyway….

In other words, I’m going to go in with my opinion now – using the William Hill prices as my guide….

----

The Hong Kong Jockey Club Handicap at 3.45 is an interesting contest….

You can’t really argue with Completely Random at the top of the market….

…. he probably deserves the berth as favourite given that he’s been improving at a rate of knots….

He’s up 12lb for his last two races – but his progression shows no sign of petering out….

Aramram’s done everything right but win in four goes since the end of March. He’s creeping up the scale in defeat but – if he holds his form – looks set to go close again….

Elmonjed ran a nice race on return, he’s still unexposed, the blinkers are back on, and he gets a quicker surface this time….

I couldn’t put anybody off backing any one of them but – at the prices – my preference is for RUN BOY RUN at the 17/2….

He’s run three good races on the bounce since dropping back to the 6f trip….

…. and shows every sign that his turn isn’t too far away….

Aramram beat him just a length last time at Newmarket and is three points shorter in the prices….

…. granted Aramram has Ryan Moore on his back this time – but even so I don’t think there’s that much between the two horses and Joe Leavy was taking 3lb off previously….

----

My Cloud is up 10lbs for a facile success at Ascot last month and the market makers at William Hill fancy him for more….

…. he’s in at 11/8 for the Boylesports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap at 4.20….

I can’t have anything in a handicap at that price – but not much else makes an obvious case for itself on the most recent evidence with the exception of second favourite Classic….

All things considered I’m being brave, taking a proper flier, and backing EPICTETUS at the 40s – which looks big…. perhaps too big….

Okay – he hasn’t run for 350 days and was disappointing John Gosden before that enforced break from action….

…. but in the meantime, he’s been bought for 80,000 guineas and moved to Jamie Osborne’s yard….

They’ve had a few months to work with him, and they’ve got no reason to rush him back until he’s ready….

It took the Gosden team a while to work out that this horse is a miler rather than a10f horse….

…. Osborne will be working from that perspective, and it can’t be ignored that this horse has some classy numbers in his back-history….

Hickory demonstrated last week that Osborne can coax a horse back to best form first time up….

… he left the headgear of that one last week….

…. and he’s doing the same with Epictetus tomorrow – which suggest he’s happy with how the horse is working at home….

It’s probably too much to expect lightening to strike twice for the same yard in two weekends….

…. but the price says he’s an absolute no-hoper in his first handicap off the lowest rating he’s ever had….

If I’d spent 80,000 guineas on him, and had 6-months to work on him, I’d hope he can disprove that assessment – even first time-up….

At the price – and with four places on offer generally – I’ll take the swing and risk looking foolish – because that’s how I am….

-----

Now, just to recap….

-----

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd