Wednesday, 2nd July 2025
In ATC today….
Put a gun to my head ….
…. ask me for a winning angle at Newmarket’s July meeting….
…. and I’ll tell you to back all this guy’s 3yo handicappers….
Oh…. and look out for me in your inbox tomorrow night….
Read on….
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A service announcement to start with….
I ordinarily go out with my selections for Saturday on Friday morning….
This week….
…. owing to unavoidable logistical issues at my publisher’s end….
…. I’ll be going out with my weekend selections on Thursday night (tomorrow night)….
…. so be sure to look out for me in your email box….
That’s when you’ll hear from me next….
…. and then next week is a BIG week…. a massive week….
…. with the July meeting at Newmarket running from Thursday to Saturday….
…. and Super Saturday also delivering more big handicap targets at York and Ascot….
There’s going to be plenty of action…. plenty of bets…. and plenty of opportunities to make a few quid….
…. which is just how we like it….
Now – speaking of next week’s meeting at Newmarket….
…. something to keep in mind….
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My mission in the big handicaps is always to dig-out ‘live’ contenders trading at wrong prices....
If I do that job effectively over the long-term, the winners take care of themselves....
So, how do you find ‘live’ contenders at the wrong prices? That’s the million-dollar question....
Every race is unique. There’s no one element of voodoo that works the magic every time. Every punter has his own way of doing things....
Me? I take each race on its own merits. I study the runners and riders – from multiple angles – and I see what jumps out at me....
It’s a time-consuming process – and that’s probably why most punters don’t bother with the ‘homework’ aspect of the game....
No problem. Each to his own. My way isn’t the only way, after all....
Another way to play the races is to find an angle of approach that will put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
And by qualified angle – I mean one with a history of producing payouts....
It’s time to put my money where my mouth is….
…. gun-to-head now….
…. here’s an angle to consider for the July meeting at Newmarket next week....
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When someone puts a gun to your head and asks for racing information that will pay – it’s handy to have informed opinions, angles or strategies rooted in fact....
Sometimes, an angle is all facts-based….
Sometimes it is largely facts – but facts with a bit of intuitive reasoning or speculation (potentially more unreliable, of course) built in....
My angle for Newmarket is one of the former and it is this: Support horses trained by Andrew Balding in the handicaps exclusively for 3yo horses....
Balding has a fantastic record in the handicaps for 3yos at the meeting – a record that demands respect and makes it a matter of folly to ignore the qualifying runners he sends this time round….
His record from 2006+ at Newmarket’s July meeting in such races stands as follows….
His last 46 qualifiers produced seven winners @ 15.2%....
…. an additional eleven of those 46 horses hit the frame….
…. which amounts to a total place strike rate of 39.1%....
Had you backed all Balding’s qualifying runners since 2006 (to level stakes 1pt e/w) profits would stand at 43.2 points….
Balding has been a solid call for punters in this specific group of races….
…. the prices about his runners have been very attractive….
…. and performance has significantly and consistently outstripped price….
And remember: the recorded profits are to returned SPs….
…. chances are that in the early-morning markets, on the exchanges or betting to Betfair SP, or on the Tote, you’d be looking at a much-improved surplus....
These numbers go beyond anything that might be considered anomalous….
Instead, they grow out of intention….
…. Balding clearly aims his young handicappers at these races….
…. and is effective at getting performances from them when he does….
It’s reasonable to anticipate that it might be a similar story again….
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Of course, the past is the past….
…. and what happened before is no cast-iron guarantee that it will happen again….
Stats and numbers in the record books don’t run races. Horses do….
…. and Balding needs the right horses this time round….
What his 3yo handicappers of yesteryear achieved at the meeting must be replicated by the current population….
…. it isn’t the same set of animals turning out year on year in the exact same circumstances….
But if the stats are omens then the omens are at least good….
…. they tell us that when Balding has a decent 3yo handicapper in his care, this is a meeting he likes to target for a win….
And when his qualifying runners haven’t managed to win or place, plenty more have put in competitive performances suggesting they’ve been primed and prepared to go-well….
Outside of wins and places already reported….
…. four more of Balding’s 46 qualifying horses produced 5th (x3) and 6th (x1) placed horses in fields of 19 and 20 runners….
…. in other words, they ran very well….
Balding has been ultra-competitive with his 3yo handicappers at this meeting….
If he’s in possession of decent 3yo handicappers….
…. on potentially good marks….
…. he will have prepared them for a serious tilt at next week’s Newmarket prizes….
It’s a good thing to know….
…. it’s something to be aware of….
…. a Balding handicapper at a nice price might just make a nice bet next week….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow night with my selections for Saturday….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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