Wednesday, 6th August 2025
In ATC today….
Last week was not my week….
…. but losing weeks are par for the course….
…. and Saturday represents a brand-new session….
Oh…. and I’ve got one for the Watch List….
Read on….
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If you can’t win – don’t lose….
…. if you do lose – then don’t lose much….
These are good rules to try to live by when you play the handicap betting game – as we do here on ATC….
But natural variance plays a role in these matters too….
…. and – whether you like it or not – sessions where you lose big are an inevitable part of playing the game….
…. certainly if you play it for long enough….
On those occasions….
…. at least if you’re me….
…. it’s a case of get through the mind spin and the sleepless nights the best way you can….
…. and then – when it all calms down and the dust settles – simply accept that it wasn’t your week – and move on….
…. because there really is no other way to go about it….
…. unless you see a slow descent into madness as a viable alternative option….
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Last week wasn’t my week – no more, no less….
…. nothing went right – despite my usual best efforts….
…. and it’s one of those weeks I just have to take on the chin….
It’s not like it’s the first time I’ve come out of the fray with a bloody nose, a split lip, and a black eye….
…. and I can take a small crumb of comfort from the fact that I wasn’t the only punter who found it tough going at Goodwood last week….
Here’s Tom Segal – Pricewise in the Racing Post….
“If there was one word to describe the first few days of Glorious Goodwood, I reckon it would be ugly…. torrential rain…. and no-one having the foggiest idea what conditions were going to be like or where the jockeys were going to go…. meant that it was all double Dutch from my perspective….”
Of course, I’m not making excuses or trying to wheedle out of my responsibilities….
…. the job is to make the game pay – whether it’s under a cloudless blue sky or in gale force winds and snow….
…. and – unlike Mr Segal – I don’t pretend to know what jockeys are going to do even at the best of times….
Fact is my form has taken a bit of a downturn….
…. and that coincided with a difficult Goodwood….
I don’t worry about it. It’s par for the course. I’ve been here before, and I’ll be here again – no doubt….
But some readers do worry. Especially those who don’t know the road….
Last week, a relatively new ATC reader DB was considerate enough to get in touch just ahead of the action on Day 2….
“One placed horse in the last 3 weeks???”
I can’t argue with the countback….
…. and I don’t suppose DB is feeling any better about things this morning….
…. but as losing spells go – this one is still in nappies….
Long-time readers….
…. the real hard-core ATC ultras….
…. the gritty loyalists who stick with me through thick and thin across the years – will recall losing spells that put this current run to shame….
…. losing spells that really put a man’s fortitude to the test….
…. losing spells that lasted long enough to grow a beard that reaches to the floor….
…. losing spells that ended in a carboard box and a sleeping bag outside New Street station in Birmingham….
Okay…. not quite that bad…. but you know what I mean….
There are ups…. and there are downs….
…. always has been and always will be….
…. the trick is to come out ahead across the long-term – and I have a long track record of getting that job done….
I won’t be panicking or throwing in the towel….
The weekend is a fresh session….
…. a new page….
…. and I’ll be back in the saddle – seeking out winners and looking to make a few quid out of the game….
And – let’s get real for a moment – one decent winner claws back what was handed over at Goodwood….
It’s onwards and upwards….
…. the game goes on….
…. I can’t change what’s in the rear-view mirror….
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And another thing to remember….
…. whilst I don’t get everything right – I don’t get everything wrong either….
I was certainly on the money about which side of the track to be on in Saturday’s Stewards’ Cup….
Here’s yours truly in ATC on Friday – talking about Circe….
“Ryan Moore partners – a sure sign that there’s at least some positive expectation in the Hannon yard about the horse…. and – like I say – in stall 23 I reckon she’s on the right part of the track for a big run…. given that 19 of the horses to make the first six in the last five renewals were drawn in stall 17 or higher….”
Five of the first six home on Saturday afternoon were drawn in stalls 18 or higher – so it wasn’t a bad shout….
Big deal, you might say. Everybody knew that….
…. but they didn’t (notwithstanding the fact that the information was easy to discover)….
….. clearly evidenced by the fact that the market backed three horses into the top five market positions – despite them starting the race in single-figure stalls….
Hammer The Hammer was sent off the 9/2 favourite from stall 4….
…. Elmonjed was sent off third in the betting at 8s from stall 8….
…. and Andrew Balding’s Purosangue was joint-fifth in the betting at 9s – berthed in stall 6….
…. taking almost 40% out of the book between them….
I look at these things sometimes and wonder if the bookies work in cahoots – suckering punters into poor bets using industry-wide false prices to create an illusionary market momentum about certain horses….
…. or perhaps it’s just the case that a lot of punters no longer trust draw data….
…. or choose to the throw darts rather than get into the ‘boring’ nitty-gritty of fact checking….
Who knows….
…. but if you played the higher stall numbers on Saturday – you stood a good chance of coming out on top….
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Finally….
…. when looking for horses it might prove profitable to follow in the weeks ahead….
…. 7yo sprinters are not normally the go-to option….
…. but Richard Spencer’s Twilight Calls does look poised to strike….
He was fifth in Saturday’s Stewards’ Cup (his trainer also produced the winner and the fourth horse)….
…. despite starting in stall 11 and racing on the opposite side of the track to where the principal players were produced….
He only gave way to the near-side runners in the last half-furlong – after being out and clear on his own for what was probably too long – and it was a really good effort from a disadvantaged track position….
Heading into Goodwood his seasonal form figures read 59000 – which probably had a lot to do with his 50/1 price tag….
…. but all those runs had come in Group races – and the fact is he probably falls short of that level these days….
Returned to handicap class he produced his best performance since joining Spencer from Henry Candy….
…. and he looks very much like he can land a big pot for connections….
It was just his second handicap run since 2022 – when he won a handicap at Newmarket off 94….
…. before taking to pattern races and occupying a career-high perch of 110 later in that 4yo season….
He’s rated 95 going forward and his canny trainer will be looking to make that mark pay – surely in handicaps….
He’s going on to my Watch List….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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