Thursday, 7th August 2025
In ATC today….
This sprint handicapper – that caught the eye at Royal Ascot and Goodwood – will win a big pot at some point….
…. one result last week draws attention to a well-handicapped horse about to return to action in Ireland….
…. and whilst I detest much of what the Shergar Cup stands for – I will be playing at the weekend….
Oh…. and I’ve got a couple of Shergar Cup angles that might well bear fruit for multiple players….
Read on….
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Completely Random is a handicap sprinter to keep on the right side of going forward – because he has a big pot in him. For sure….
He ran in last week’s Stewards’ Cup – watch again here – where he was 8/14 and beaten 4.5 lengths….
There’s nothing earth-shattering about those bare performance figures….
…. but he did race on the wrong side of the track and – as it panned out – could hardly have been drawn worse in stall 1….
Under the circumstances he ran well to finish third of the 14 in his group….
The time before at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham – review here – was more instructive still….
Sent off the fourth favourite at 7s he justified market support – finishing 5/28 and beaten 2.25 lengths….
…. doing his best work – and passing horses – late on….
You kind of need everything to drop right to win a big sprint handicap – particularly one of the really valuable ones….
…. and horses will often advertise their potential and readiness a number of times before all the right cogs align….
Completely Random has raced just seven times on turf to date….
…. he’s already produced competitive and eye-catching performances in pinnacle races for sprint handicappers – the Wokingham and the Stewards’ Cup….
…. and sooner or later he is going to land a big one….
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Omni Man won the 12f handicap for 3yos at Goodwood last week – watch here….
…. and in so doing paid a compliment to Jagged Edge – the horse that beat him a comfortable 2-lengths in a maiden at Cork back in April….
That Cork maiden has worked out pretty well with the 17 runners producing 10 wins from 37 subsequent runs….
…. Omni Man (2nd) is now rated 94….
…. Collecting Coin (3rd) won a maiden last week at Galway and is on an opening mark of 88….
…. Sidney Reilly (4th) won a maiden in good style at Dundalk in July and looks sure to be rated somewhere around 90 when awarded a mark….
Jagged Edge did appear once more after that Cork race – finishing down the field in a decent handicap at the Curragh in May….
…. but he’s not been seen since, and I wonder whether that’s because he’s had a niggle or because Dermot Weld has held him back for a late-season campaign on easier ground….
Whatever – he appears to be ready to roll again because he’s entered up at the Curragh on Saturday….
He might well need the run – if he even turns out….
…. but I reckon he’s very nicely rated on a mark off 88 – and I’d expect Weld to capitalize at some point before the end of the season….
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Moving on now to the action this weekend – provided by the Shergar Cup at Ascot….
I’ve had a lot to say about this event over the years – not much of it good – and I retract none of it….
I’ve waxed lyrical about how much I detest the event….
The ‘team’ thing feels stilted and forced….
…. nobody cares who wins….
…. and all the fake ‘enthusiasm’ and ‘excitement’ whipped up by the ingenuine crew at ITV racing makes me want to put my foot through the television screen….
For me, the Shergar Cup is a total non-event dressed up like it means something or that it matters….
…. but it doesn’t – it doesn’t mean anything, and it doesn’t matter one iota….
Who even knows which team won last year?
I’m telling you now, they could total the points up wrong on Saturday’s races and put up a fake leaderboard to see if anybody notices – and nobody will….
That’s how much racing fans care about the charade that is the Shergar Cup….
…. but – and feel free to call me a cast-iron hypocrite – I’ll be playing anyway….
…. one: because some of the races are right up my street – when viewed as standalone events….
…. and two: because I don’t like blank weekends….
Just don’t expect me to take any interest whatsoever in the ‘team’ element….
…. and know this: I’ll be watching with the sound down until the stalls open on the individual races….
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Putting aside all my personal prejudices about the event for a moment….
…. I do wonder – where these specific races are concerned – if there aren’t useful betting angles that punters might be unaware of….
For example, are there any trainers that really buy into this nonsensical event….
…. trainers with a track record of providing horses that win or place more frequently than other trainers….
I’ve consulted the event data going all the way back to 2010 – and it turns out that Andrew Balding is that man….
He’s provided 63 runners for the event during that period – more than any other trainer on the block….
…. and he’s not just rolling up with no-hopers, regressive horses, or horses that need the run….
Those 63 horses produced 10 winners and an additional 19 placers – which equates to a total place strike rate of 46%....
…. an impressive outcome – whichever way you look at it….
…. and I wouldn’t put anybody off rolling-up Balding’s runners this weekend into multiple bets of one form or another – just for kicks….
The other thing I’ve been thinking about is the jockeys….
Of the 12 riders taking part on Saturday – only Hollie Doyle (23/261) and Joanna Mason (2/21) have any meaningful experience of riding the track….
…. and – whilst I know it’s primarily all about the horses they end up riding – familiarity with the track must represent an advantage – surely….
Both Doyle and Mason ride for the Great Britian & Ireland team….
…. and whilst I’m not saying the dice are loaded, I am saying that the ‘home’ team must stand a good chance of coming out on top….
…. and Hollie Doyle….
…. who is clearly being built-up into the new Hayley Turner (previous pantomime Queen of the Shergar Cup, three-time winning captain, and three-time Silver Saddle winner with an event record of 9-11-64 from 2010+)….
…. is being given every chance of building on her own 3-3-15 record in the event and picking up a second ‘Silver Saddle’ trophy in the process….
Doyle’s rides on Saturday are clearly another set that might well bear fruit rolled up into multiples….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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