Wednesday, 17th September 2025
In ATC today….
Ayr’s big Festival provides the bulk of the betting action for handicap punters this weekend….
…. the Gold Cup is the real big race on the Saturday card….
…. and – if you’re planning on digging out bets for that – I’ve got some observations you might find you useful….
Oh…. and there’s a trainer who demands very serious attention in the other sprint trilogy races – the Bronze Cup & the Silver Cup….
Read on….
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I’m paddling like billy-oh and getting precisely nowhere at the moment….
…. a case of one stop forward and one step back….
Doncaster was one of those (many) frustrating weeks where all the blood, sweat and tears delivered just a small positive result….
…. assuming all picks were backed at 1pt e/w to advised prices….
Not what you hope for – but a sight better than doing the money….
I needed one of the placers to go just that bit better – but it didn’t happen….
Ho hum – nobody ever said these handicaps were easy….
…. but that’s exactly why I play them – because it would be no fun at all if they were….
Onwards and upwards….
Ayr’s big Festival provides the bulk of the betting action this weekend – supported by races at Newbury….
The real big race is Saturday’s Gold Cup….
…. and if you’re planning on digging out bets for that….
…. here are some observations that you might find useful….
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One – Gold Cup winners generally don’t show their hand in the lead-up to the race….
Which means the winner hasn’t typically been stacking up wins….
…. and shooting up the official rating scale….
Plenty save their best for the big day….
Last season’s winner Lethal Levi went into the race 2/7 for the season….
…. and had also placed in the Wokingham and gone close to landing the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket’s July meeting….
…. so, he represents a bit of an aberration on the observation….
…. because he’d gone into the 2024 campaign well-handicapped after a fruitless 2023….
2023 winner Significantly was 1/5 for the season….
…. the year previous Summerghand turned up 1/7….
…. 2021 winner Bielsa was 0/5….
The Gold Cup is prestigious and valuable….
…. it’s a race trainers target well in advance….
…. plenty of horses turn up with handicap marks that have been protected….
…. and plenty have had preparations structured for this specific day….
Those horses are generally at an advantage over those targeted at big races earlier in the summer….
…. 11 of the last 17 winners had won just once or not at all during the build-up to Ayr…
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Two – the market’s been on the ball….
…. short horses have been hot property in the Gold Cup over the last couple of decades….
Since 2002 52 horses were sent off at 8s or shorter….
…. and they produced 6 winners and 18 placers – a total place strike rate of almost 50%....
That’s good going….
…. and Placepot players should take note….
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Three – stamina is key….
The race is run over 6f, but the evidence suggests your horse should stay further….
…. since 2001 only five winners hadn’t already won or proved fully effective over 7f ….
…. and four of those won when the emphasis was more on speed than stamina
…. because the ground was good or quicker….
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Four – some key pointers/splitters to bear in mind….
Just one horse older than 6 has won the Gold Cup since Hard To Figure in 1993 – Summerghand in 2022….
We’ve seen just two 3yo winners since 2002….
…. but don’t read too much into that as just 19 have turned out since 2015….
…. 21/25 winners had raced within the last 5-weeks….
…. and 23/25 winners had appeared at least 10 times on a racecourse….
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Trainers are creatures of habit….
…. and whilst I accept that what happened yesterday is no certain guide to what will unfold tomorrow….
…. it’s reasonable to work on the assumption that what’s frequently happened before might very well happen again….
And if you’re working on that assumption in connection with Saturday’s Gold Cup….
…. then Kevin Ryan has to show up on your radar….
…. his race record over the last two decades demands it….
Dandy Nicholls won the race 6 times between 2000 and 2010….
…. and if Ryan wins again on Saturday he’d match that tally….
…. having already saddled 5 winners….
…. Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Raimus (2012), Brando (2016), and Bielsa (2021)….
Ryan hasn’t produced his race wins in as tight a timeframe as Nicholls….
…. but he couldn’t be expected to….
…. and his record – in a most competitive sprint – is plenty fine….
Any runner Ryan saddles is worthy of close inspection….
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While Kevin Ryan has been the main man in the feature race of Ayr’s sprint trilogy….
…. it is Richard Fahey whose picked up most of the pieces in the lesser Silver Cup and Bronze Cup….
He’s not done too bad in the Gold Cup – 2 winners and 12 placers over two decades….
…. a record that stands up against most….
But his best results – his most frequent hauls – were produced in the supporting races….
…. with 3 winners and 9 placers in the Silver Cup….
…. and 3 winners and 7 placers in the Bronze Cup….
Perhaps this is just happenstance….
…. or perhaps Ryan is just better at getting his better sprinters to fire on the big day….
…. or perhaps Fahey is good at seeing to it that his better – or best-handicapped horses – get in lesser races….
Who knows….
There are probably 101 arguments you might make as to why Fahey does so well in the Silver and Bronze events….
…. and you might still never get to the heart of it….
But no matter – the numbers don’t tell lies….
Fahey does do well in those lesser races – and that’s the point to be mindful of heading into a big weekend in the North….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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