Wednesday, 24th September 2025
In ATC today….
Newmarket hosts Saturday’s Cambridgeshire….
…. 30+ runners will go at it up the 9f straight….
…. today we scan the record for pointers….
Oh…. and if you had to pick the winner or face the gallows – here’s what I’d back….
Read on….
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Do you know how it feels to be kicked in the guts by a horse?
I don’t….
…. but I imagine it feels how I felt on Saturday when Theory Of Tides got done at Newbury….
When you play the handicap game as I do….
…. you only need one winner to make the day….
So when the difference between profit and loss boils down to half-a-length….
…. it’s tough to swallow….
But that’s the game….
…. and all you can you do is move on to the next race….
…. which is Saturday’s Cambridgeshire….
…. a race that’s attracted an average of 31 runners since 2002....
Sensible punters wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole....
…. but I’ve never claimed to have any sense….
I focus on races like the Cambridgeshire precisely because they’re difficult puzzles....
I know that if things are difficult for me….
…. they’re also difficult for the punters I play against….
In big handicaps, the market is prone to pricing errors….
…. and my objective is to capitalise on those mistakes….
…. by backing well-treated and advantaged horses that are better bets than their prices suggest….
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In the search for Cambridgeshire clues – I start with the draw….
High stalls had enjoyed a good run heading into the 2024 renewal….
The previous 8 winners came from stalls 26, 21, 25, 29, 21, 29, 28 & 35….
…. and runners-up had run from 19, 22, 27, 15, 25, 22, 35 & 25….
The effect had tapered off for horses finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th….
…. but – even so – 11/23 such finishers had started in stall 19+….
Last year EVERYTHING changed….
…. 32mm of rain in the week leading up to the race saw to that….
Nearside horses (drawn high) had no chance….
…. none at all….
The first seven home started in stalls 4, 2, 11, 6, 3, 8 and 5….
The punters who took a steer from the most recent stalls data got spanked….
…. with no kind of run for their money….
…. and it would be an understandable consequence of that topsy-turvey outcome if punters were cautious about trusting to draw stats this time….
But I put last season’s outcome down to the fact that horses racing on the nearside were running in a swamp….
…. whilst far side horses ran on a part of the track where the time-based going was recorded as good (Racing Post) or good to soft (Timeform)….
Provided we avoid torrential rain this week, I expect a reversion to the bias for high stalls….
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To win the Cambridgeshire a horse must put 30+ smart rivals to the sword….
…. and – with rare exceptions – it takes a fit and in-form horse to do that....
Winners generally advertise well-being on their previous assignment….
…. 17/18 had raced since the start of August….
…. 17 appeared in a handicap last time – 14 at C2 level….
…. and 13/18 finished in the first five (four won) – just two being beaten 4+ lengths….
One that got beat further had contested a G2 the time before – and was clearly up against superior rivals….
…. the other was 2017 winner, Dolphin Vista. He got smashed the time before and went on to win the big one sent off at 50s.
That’s racing for you – nothing is straightforward....
It’s worth noting that 8/12 winners scored 107+ on the RPR scale last time out – close to what’s required to win an average Cambridgeshire....
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If you had to pick the winner of this year’s Cambridgeshire or face the gallows….
…. I’d say back John Gosden’s Fifth Column at this morning’s 7s….
…. despite the price being WAY too short for this column….
Why?
Because it looks like he’ll be ridden by William Buick – king of Newmarket’s 9f straight….
Other jockeys – some will ride on Saturday – have a similar volume of experience in big fields up the 9f straight….
…. but none matches Buick’s record….
He’s had 33 qualifying rides since 2012 – four horses won and ten placed….
…. a win strike rate of 12.1%....
…. and a total place strike rate of 42.4% (I include 5th and 6th place finishes in 30+ runner Cambridgeshire renewals)….
…. a stellar figure when you consider 23/33 qualifying rides were in races with 16 to 33 runners….
You might say Buick got lucky with his rides….
Oasis Charm was favourite for the 2018 Suffolk Stakes. Bronze Angel and Gm Hopkins were well fancied for the Cambridgeshire in 2012 and 2014….
…. but there aren’t many steering jobs in 16+ runner handicaps….
Yes, Buick was on good horses – but they still had to be ridden correctly. And it’s not like all his placed horses were shorties – five were 14s+….
Plus, jockeys don’t tend to fluke rides on good horses. They’re on those good horses because their talent, ability and skillsets are recognized and in demand….
You don’t pick just any jockey to ride a horse with a good chance in a big handicap….
…. if you’ve got any sense, you pick one of the jockeys most able to get the job done….
I put William Buick’s record up the 9f straight at Newmarket down to talent rather than good fortune….
…. he’s the best man for the test….
…. and that’s something worth knowing….
…. because most of the people you’ll bet against this weekend don’t….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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