Thursday, 2nd October 2025
How the landscape looks from here….
In ATC today….
Longchamp hosts the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday – perhaps the most important horse race in the world….
No race anywhere else on the planet typically attracts a field with the same depth of talent the Arc boasts each year….
…. and no race compares to it in terms of the comprehensive test it presents – the winner requiring a high-class mix of speed, stamina and resilience….
…. and the fortitude to express those features in often difficult conditions, on a demanding track, and at the end of a long European season….
Of course, the Arc isn’t a handicap but it’s a great race for punters to target and there are good field splitters to work with….
…. winners over the last two decades have tended to conform to a set of very specific yardsticks….
Oh…. and I’ve got draw data in a format you probably won’t see anywhere else in the build-up this week’s renewal….
Read on….
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Top-level races….
…. like Sunday’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp….
…. tend to produce winners that conform to a specific template....
…. and the historic record of the race offers us a chopping block on which to split the field….
…. into two distinct groups….
…. likely contenders….
…. and horses destined to make up the numbers….
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Of course, the stats don’t represent an infallible A + B + C + D = WINNER formula….
We’re dealing with horse races – and horse races are not chemistry experiments or mathematical problems that can be solved with a calculator....
Half-ton animals made of flesh, bone and blood are not entirely predictable….
…. and we know from experience that races between them are rarely so....
Surprise outcomes and outcomes we didn’t consider as likely as others are a common feature of this game….
…. and we play our hand of cards knowing that’s the unalterable environment….
Solemia provides a case in point….
…. she was the last big surprise winner of the Arc in 2012 – sent off unfancied at 33s....
Soft ground played a big part in that outcome….
…. and that serves as a reminder that the field-splitting stats below should be viewed in conjunction with how underfoot conditions turn out….
Right now, the ground at Longchamp is described as soft….
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You can generally dismiss horses that haven’t won a G1….
Only 1 of the last 25 winners triumphed without ticking that box….
21 winners produced a G1 win earlier the same season….
Found, Solemia and Treve in 2014 didn’t. Found had finished 2nd in four though. And Solemia had only had one opportunity – finishing 3rd....
A decent level of experience is essential – but too much is a disadvantage….
Horses that have run at least six times, but no more than twelve times represent the percentage play. 19 of the last 25 winners conformed to that yardstick....
Focus attention on horses that have scored a career-best of 120+ on the RPR scale….
23 of the last 25 Arc winners met that standard. 20 had registered such a rating at 11f to 12f....
Racing off a long lay-off is a disadvantage….
21 of the last 25 winners had appeared on the track during the last 6-weeks. That said. None had run in the 3-weeks directly ahead of the race....
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Age is another decent basis on which to split the field….
Just 5 of the last 61 Arc winners were older than 4. The 3yos have won 35 of the last 61 renewals whilst the 4yos have won 21….
As with the wider record, the recent edge just about lies with the 3yos….
…. they’ve won 13 of the last 25 renewals and produced an additional 23 top-3 finishes from 168 runners in total….
Compare that to the record of 4yo runners. They’ve produced 9 winners and 16 top-3 finishers from 139 runners….
Something worth noting – the 3yos won 15 of the 20 Arcs held between 1992 and 2011 – but older horses have reasserted themselves in more recent times taking 9 of the past 13 runnings….
And – whatever you do this week in your deliberations – don’t dismiss the fairer sex. Fillies and mares have won 10 and produced an additional 13 top-3 finishers from 84 runners since 2000….
Fillies went through a fallow period from 1982 through 2011 – winning just five of the 30 Arcs held during that span. However, 8 of the 10 female winners since 2000 were produced in the last 13 years. So, they’re on a roll….
Of course, the stats only tell us what’s happened previously….
…. the frequency with which something has happened can only suggest (rather than guarantee) how likely it is to happen again….
…. and all stats must be weighed against the context of individual horses and their specific circumstances….
But – year on year – the historic statistical record proves a strong guide to the biggest races.
The Arc certainly falls into that category – and this year’s winner is highly likely to tick most (if not all) of the statistical boxes highlighted above....
Personally, I’ll look to identify and bet strong qualifiers at big prices. But that’s just me....
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The race was run at Chantilly for a couple of years before returning to a redeveloped Longchamp in 2018....
The draw wasn’t a big issue at Chantilly. But it has a big bearing on the outcome at Longchamp....
18 of the last 23 winners at Longchamp started the race in stall 8 or lower….
It’s not impossible to win from a higher stall – but the advantage is likely to be with the horses drawn lowest – especially in larger fields….
The table below might be of some interest.
…. it shows the finishing position of horses from individual stalls in the last 23 renewals of the Arc run at Longchamp – with top-3 finishes in bold....
Stalls 1 to 8 have produced 18 of the last 23 Longchamp Arc winners….
Stall 6 is something of a magic stall – having produced 6 winners from 23 runners….
…. next best is stall 4 with four winners and 3 additional placers from the last 22 horses to try from there….
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One more thing….
Taking on the Arc favourite has been a smart move over the last 25 years – only seven jollies won during that time….
…. Sakhee (2001), Zarkava (2008), Sea the Stars (2009), Enable (2017 & 2018), Alpinista (2022), & Ace Impact (2023)….
During that same time-frame, just 5 other outright favourites hit the frame….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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