Tuesday, 14th October 2025
In ATC today….
Yet another bloody second for this column at the weekend….
…. but I’m certainly not gun-shy or running for cover as one reader suggests….
…. tough going is par for the course when you bet the handicaps – and we saw an example of just how tough at Chepstow on Saturday….
Oh…. and if you’re going to be betting the decent handicaps over jumps in the next few weeks – you’ll want to bear something in mind….
Read on….
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The Cesarewitch – what can I say?
Dawn Rising found one too good on the day….
…. another second….
…. the 32nd selection to finish second for this column since September last year….
It’s not like you don’t expect to finish second from time to time….
But 32 times? In just 52 weeks? More than once a fortnight over such a protracted period? Well, you couldn’t do it if you set out to….
The bottom line is that I could have done with just a few of those seconds converting into winners….
…. but that’s called howling at the moon, and it will get us precisely nowhere….
Did Oisin Murphy kick on for home just a bit too soon on Dawn Rising? Possibly….
I’m not sure he knew it….
…. but in striking out just after the three-pole he was offering the winner – ridden cold for the most part – a target to shoot at all the way home….
…. and just didn’t quite manage to grind it out from the front….
Had his jockey waited a bit longer – who knows? He wasn’t massively outstayed at the post….
But well done to the winner – Beylerbeyi – who became just the second horse in 24 years to win a Cesarewitch without having previously won a race of any description over 2m+….
When you think he started out as a sprinter in France, he’s come a long way – literally….
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Something else you probably couldn’t do if you tried – is to pick out two non-runners from three selections….
I managed that feat at the weekend (the first time it’s ever happened that way) – and reader LT reckons I did it on purpose….
A very disappointed email from him on Saturday morning – that we don’t need to go into – suggests that yours truly bottled the job….
…. apparently, because I’m on a bit of a bad trot, I’ve gone gun-shy, and now I’m running for cover….
It’s all a bit silly…. almost childish….
But – for the record – Albany scoped badly on Saturday morning….
…. and Eye of Dubai was self-certificated out of his race….
…. meaning his trainer pulled him out – on his own professional judgment – without having to call in the vet….
I don’t know what was wrong with the horse. I have no way of knowing….
…. and – if it needs saying – I had no hand in either situation!!!
It was just one of those things….
Oh…. and this bad trot I’m on – I think of it more as a period of treading water….
…. I’m light on outright winners of late – but the placers keep the meter ticking over and it’s not like we’re losing acres of ground on the bottom line….
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At Chepstow’s three-day meeting there were 46 non-runners on account of ‘unsuitable ground’….
There’s not been much rain around this summer, and the jumps tracks are up against it trying to produce suitable racing ground at this early stage of the season….
The hurdle course is on the flat circuit at Chepstow – which has been watered all across the summer….
…. and ahead of the fixture at the weekend the chase course was being watered for 18 hours a day….
…. but the ground still came up too fast for almost a quarter of the horses that had been left in at the final declaration stage of the 22 races run at the fixture….
What we can deduce from this is that the proper winter horses need the rain to fall and will have to wait for their opportunities – first to get fit and then to win – on the right ground….
…. whilst the summer jumpers….
…. who like a bit of ground more akin to the flat than the winter game….
…. and who are match-fit from their recent exploits out on the track….
…. will have good opportunities to prolong their campaigns and maybe land some of the decent prizes on offer in the early weeks of the jumps season proper….
It’s just something to bear in mind….
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If anybody was in any doubt about just how tough the race-betting game is – especially when it come to the handicaps….
…. look no further than Rambo T who won the Silver Trophy – the big handicap hurdle of the meeting – at Chepstow on Saturday….
His trainer – Olly Murphy – believed he was handicapped out of it….
…. and thought so little of the horse’s chances that he offered Sean Bowen the opportunity to ride his other runner, Paggane….
When Rambo T won anyway – despite all the reservations – Murphy said this:
“I’m not shocked often but I am after that….”
Murphy works with the horse every day of week and was still completely in the dark about his chances of winning….
…. which doesn’t say much about your average punter’s chances of calling these things correctly….
This game is never easy….
…. which is probably at the root of why we keep playing….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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