One for the Balmoral....

Friday, 17th October 2025

One for the Balmoral….

Horses to follow over the jumps….

In ATC today….

…. the end of the flat season proper is nigh….

…. and I swing the bat at Ascot on Saturday….

I’m on EBT’S GUARD in the 4.40 at Ascot – up at 16s ….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….

Read on….

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Handicaps are always a bit of a lottery – never more so than at the death of a long season….

…. you can go to the well too often – and horses can be running on fumes….

In Saturday’s Balmoral at Ascot (4.40) all the obvious ones….

…. the most lightly raced horses, with the most obvious scope for improvement, and in pretty good recent nick….

…. are at the top of the market….

The winner will likely come from Native Warrior, Crown Of Oaks, Shout
& Fifth Column….

…. but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t already calling out loud and clear if I put one of those up….

My job is to find one that can run big at a fancier price – and I’m going with EBT’S GUARD at the general 16s….

He’s been going well all season….

…. winning twice, hitting the frame in multiple valuable handicaps, and going up the ladder to the tune of 9lbs….

He was still in good form when last seen in the Cambridgeshire….

…. and if he’s still got one more dance in his legs then he can go well at a price that seems pretty generous for a horse that keeps going so well in big handicaps….

He’s running off a new high of 101 tomorrow….

…. but that’s not so much of a concern in a £200k race where pretty much the entire field is either on a new high or within three pounds of one….

…. and Ebt’s Guard has been so consistent this term that I can see him going well again when others might falter….

I think he ran well enough last time at Newmarket – probably on the wrong side and probably not quite getting the 9f trip as well as he gets the mile….

The time before at Ascot he was beaten by Shout – one of the more upwardly mobile in tomorrow’s field and up at plenty shorter odds….

…. but it was softer underfoot conditions that day and whilst Ebt’s Guard is versatile – I do think he’s a better proposition on the sounder surface he’ll get tomorrow….

He’s got decent form at the mile, he’s got winning form at the track, and he’s had a few of tomorrow’s opponents behind him already this term….

…. and I like his draw in stall 1….

Nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen or where the jockeys are going to choose to go….

…. but low stalls – often seen as a negative in well-populated straight races at Ascot – have been holding their own in the most recent big field contests….

…. and there’s a nice cluster of horses in the low stalls that have been in good form over the last few weeks, and look set to go well….

All things considered – I think the low side ain’t no bad place to be….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back with more next week….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd