Wednesday, 3rd December 2025
In ATC today….
The Becher Chase at Aintree is Saturday’s feature betting heat….
…. the race has a long history of favouring older types over younger….
…. and 18 of 24 winners had a specific strong feature in common….
Oh…. and I don’t think Willam Hill would put up a £500,000 bonus if they seriously expected to have to pay it out….
Read on….
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The Becher Chase is the feature handicap for punters this weekend….
…. a decent field of staying chasers slogging it out over 3m2f and 21 of the big Aintree fences….
…. and this year there’s a bit of extra spice in the pot – in the form of the newly-conceived “William Hill Half-a-Mill”….
The bookie’s putting up a £500,000 bonus to be paid out to the connections of any horse that wins Saturday’s William Hill Becher Chase….
…. or the William Hill Classic Chase (Warwick, January 10th)….
…. or the William Hill Grand National Trial (Haydock, February 14th)….
…. before going on to win the BIG one – the Grand National (Aintree, April 11th)….
Very generous….
…. and the money could be won – in theory at least….
One for Arthur won the Classic Chase at Warwick back in 2017 before following up in the big one at Aintree next time out….
Three horses have won a Becher and a Grand National – Earth Summit, Amberleigh House, and Silver Birch….
…. just not in the same season….
As for the Grand National Trial at Haydock which – given the title – you might expect to be the daddy of the trial races for Aintree’s showpiece….
…. no horse has ever won both races in the same season….
…. though Party Politics (1992), Earth Summit (1998), Mon Mome (2009) & Neptune Collonges did finish 5th, 5th, 7th & 2nd in the Haydock trial before going on to win at Liverpool….
…. and Red Rum did win the Grand National Trial at Haydock in 1975 – but that’s not one of the seasons in which he won at Aintree….
Bottom line?
It’s a calculated risk from William Hill – good PR throughout the winter in exchange for a promise of money they might never have to make good on….
I reckon they’ll have looked at the data and would expect to hang on to the cash….
…. mainly because the classier horses most likely to be winning the new-look & new-feel Grand National are not types likely to be turning out tuned-up to win the Becher, the Classic or the Trial….
Of course, I’ve teed it up nicely now for Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton to come along and blow that theory out of the water….
…. and – let me be clear – you won’t hear any complaints from me if they do!
Come on lads, have a crack at it….
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As I’ve already alluded to….
…. the Becher hasn’t been a strong recent guide to the Grand National....
It does give connections an opportunity to give horses experience of the unique Aintree obstacles as a prep for April….
A proportion of Saturday’s field will be aimed at the April race – no doubt….
…. but winning over the fences at 3m2f on December ground isn’t quite the same thing as winning over 4m4f on spring ground….
…. and I tend to look at the race as a standalone valuable handicap in its own right – with a prize fund worth £150k & winning connections banking almost £85k….
A conundrum for punters is figuring out which horses are trying to win on Saturday….
…. and which are prioritising a looksee….
…. and it’s hard to know for sure….
All I can tell you is this: 17/27 Becher winners had already run over the Grand National fences….
In other words, course form is significant….
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A scan of the historic record will encourage any punter to bear age in mind….
The Becher is limited to horses aged 6yo+….
…. but the race isn’t an easy assignment for younger horses….
The big fences take more out of a horse than conventional obstacles….
…. and results tell us mature horses have the edge….
…. 17/24 winners were 9+….
…. only two horses younger than 8 have won since 2000….
…. Silver Birch in 2004 and Vieux Lion Rouge in 2016….
There are 19 horses with Becher entries this morning….
…. four are younger than 8….
I’m not saying one of those – or one of multiple entries aged 8 – can’t win….
…. the stats are there to be trumped, after all….
…. but when considering selections (and prices) be aware that younger horses have found it difficult to win….
The last 61 horses to race aged 7 or younger produced the two winners mentioned and 10 additional placers….
…. one of those winners and another placer were saddled by Paul Nicholls whilst another 3 placers ran for Peter Bowen….
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Stamina is obviously a factor, and it stands to reason that race-fit and match-sharp horses should be at an advantage….
19/23 winners and 51/67 horses to make the frame had already been on the track during the current season….
Note: I include the 5th horse as a placer in fields of 20+ runners….
Ideally you want your horse to have shown a bit of something last time out too. 16/18 winners made the first five on their previous appearance….
2016 winner Vieux Lion Rouge was an exception, but he’d finished 7th in the Grand National on his previous run – a none-too-shabby effort….
…. Walk In The Mill was the other outlier in 2019 – having pulled-up the time before….
One more thing to bear in mind….
We’ve seen some commendable weight-conceding performances in the Becher this century….
…. Young Kenny carried 12-00 to victory in 2000. Vic Venturi carried 11-12 in 2009….
…. Eurotrek and Mr Pointment carried 11-07 and 11-05 in 2006 and 2007….
…. Blaklion had 11-06 on his back in 2017 and last year Ashtown Lad carried 11-05….
But those big Aintree fences take some jumping and take a lot out of horses….
…. the runners burdened with the least lead appear to find it easier than those humping bigger weights….
…. 18/24 winners carried less than 11-00 to victory....
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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