Tuesday, 6th January 2026
In ATC today….
Dan Skelton sends out a lot of handicap winners in January….
…. but you won’t make much money backing them….
…. and the historic record suggests your focus is better engaged monitoring runners from a pair of off-the-radar yards….
Oh…. and while Olly Murphy’s metrics are good – I see that changing….
Read on….
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Everybody wants to hit the ground running at the turn of a new year….
…. and whether it’s a diet…. an exercise programme…. career plans…. or personal goals….
…. we all want to see quick results…. to get points on the board asap…. to see progress unfold immediately….
I don’t suppose it’s any different for racing trainers….
…. and over the Christmas period…
…. with my handicap punter hat affixed firmly to my head….
…. I wondered to myself whether or not there are trainers who like to hit the ground running with their handicappers in January….
…. trainers with sustained metrics that suggest they prepare the handicappers in their string with January targets in mind….
I wheeled out the old number-crunching machine….
…. blew the dust off….
… set the dials on my dataset – C4 or better handicaps run over hurdles or fences in Great Britain during the month of January from 2021 onwards….
…. and cranked the levers to establish the facts of the matter….
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First things first….
…. Dan Skelton’s right up there when it comes to sheer volume of winners….
…. he’s saddled 23 overall – 10 over fences and 13 over hurdles….
…. but the strike rate isn’t great – the winners came from 156 runners in total at 14.7%....
…. and you wouldn’t have made a brass Razoo backing them blind….
…. instead, you’d have lost almost 24 points to level stakes at SP – that’s a -15.3% return on investment….
It’s a similar story with the other two trainers producing handicap winners at volume during the first month of the year….
…. Venetia Williams’s record reads 24/176 at 13.6%....
…. with level stake losses at SP weighing in at a whopping 77.6 points – a -44.1% return on investment….
…. whilst Paul Nicholls is 19/119 at 16%….
…. and shows a level stake loss of 22 points – a -18.6% return on investment….
What those figures reveal is that the market is already on to the big volume players….
…. backing qualifying runners into prices that make it difficult for punters to capitalize….
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Not to worry….
…. there’s more than one game in town….
…. and the dataset points to a pair of off-the-radar trainers who tick both the boxes we’re looking for….
…. a steady flow of handicap winners in January….
… and prices that made them profitable to back over the last five years – suggesting the market isn’t completely dialed-in….
Here’s the low down….
Keep your eye on Anthony Honeyball’s handicap hurdlers this month….
…. he’s 5/17 – with level stake profits up at 47.25 points (2.77 points per bet)….
Of course, stats only tell you what happened before….
…. and that’s no guarantee of anything happening again….
…. all situations are specific and individual….
…. but decent strike rate + nice betting profit = situation of interest….
…. and Honeyball’s handicap hurdlers are well worth the onceover across the next few weeks….
Watch out also for Brian Ellison’s handicap chasers in upcoming entries and declarations….
…. because this is a time of year when he’s in the habit of delivering for savvy punters with that group of horses….
He’s 7/26 with qualifying runners and level stakes betting profits at SP ran to 51 points (1.96 points per bet)….
Again…. performance…. prices…. metrics….
…. all these things are subject to variation and fluctuation – because no two situations are same….
…. and while history repeats in a general sense – it cannot and will not be replicated in exact form….
What we’re doing here is seeking to identify patterns of interest….
…. and then taking a view when qualifying runners are down to run….
We’re just using the data (the historic record) to look for potential angles that might bear fruit down the line….
…. and the data suggests two things loud and clear….
…. Honeyball’s handicap hurdlers….
…. and Ellison’s handicap chasers….
…. are angles worthy of consideration over the next few weeks….
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One last thing….
Olly Murphy has a good record with handicappers in January….
…. particularly with his hurdlers – he’s 10/60 at 16.7%....
…. with betting profits weighing in at 38 points (0.63 points per bet)….
His is a top yard on the up – and I’d expect him to be among the winners again this month….
…. but proceed with caution….
…. because the Sean Bowen effect is sure to diminish prices….
…. and it’s probably harder to turn a profit on Murphy now (generally) than it was….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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