Wednesday, 7th January 2026
Who makes the January handicaps pay?
In ATC today….
A new rule is introduced to handicaps today….
…. it’s going to have unintended consequences….
…. and we’re already seeing that scenario unfold….
Oh…. and there’s another way of going about it….
Read on….
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A new rule comes into effect today….
…. which prevents horses from running in handicaps from 15lbs+ out of the handicap….
The change applies across jump and flat handicaps….
…. and it’s been introduced by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) to ensure that horses compete against rivals of similar ability and don’t run too far out of their own grade….
On the face of it there’s no issue with that – it makes sense….
…. but rules often have unintended consequences….
…. some of which can be negative (or even perverse) – producing outcomes and situations that run contrary to the intentions that led to the rule being implemented in the first place….
…. and it’s already happening with this new rule….
L’Homme Presse is entered up for Saturday’s Classic Chase at Warwick….
He’s officially rated 162….
…. and – if he runs – Emma Lavelle’s My Silver Lining (rated 120) won’t be able to take part….
…. because she’ll be too far out of the handicap – falling foul of the new rule….
Now, before we go any further, here’s a bit more about the reasoning behind the new rule – direct from the BHA….
“.... the new 15lbs limit is informed by data on the performance of horses running out of the handicap in both Flat and Jump races. This evidence shows that in general, the further out of the handicap a horse runs, the fewer rivals they beat, the greater the distance they are beaten and the less likely they are to complete the race....”
And here are some comments from Richard Wayman, Director of Racing at the BHA….
“Following consultation across the sport, we felt it would be sensible and responsible to introduce a limit that would avoid the most extreme cases of horses racing out of their own grade in handicaps.”
I think all that’s pretty clear….
…. the new rule is about making sure horses aren’t racing outside of their grade….
Fair enough….
…. but how would My Silver Lining be racing out of her grade on Saturday?
I don’t get that….
My Silver Lining won last year’s edition of the Classic Chase off a mark of 122….
… beating 142-rated Galia Des Liteaux 0.75 lengths….
…. and with the rest of the seven finishers 12+ lengths further back….
So, it’s not like the grade of Saturday’s race is beyond her….
…. or that she can’t compete at the grade….
…. or that she’s likely to be beaten so far in that grade of race that it’s pointless – or detrimental to her interests – to have her taking part….
Far from it….
…. Saturday’s race is her right and proper grade. It’s where she belongs. It’s where she should be running (if not there, then where?)….
…. and the only reason she won’t be running….
…. assuming the race beats the weather and L’Homme Presse takes up his engagement and carries top weight….
…. is because Venetia William’s horse is (perhaps) running in the wrong grade….
He’s rated 162….
…. yesterday he was given an entry for the G1 Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March….
…. he’s run in two G1s and a G2 in his four goes since Christmas 2024….
…. and whilst he probably isn’t the force he represented in his absolute pomp he hasn’t quite dropped yet to the level of a mere handicapper….
If any horse is running out of its grade in Saturday’s race – perhaps it’s him….
As it stands, My Silver Lining is being penalized….
…. stopped from running in her right and proper grade….
…. simply because a big boy on a big rating is turning out to strut his stuff….
What are handicaps for if out-and-out handicappers (with no C1 prospects) are stopped from taking part on this basis?
Of course, you could make the point that My Silver Lining has simply dropped too low in the handicap….
…. but she’s only 2lb lower than when she won the race last year….
…. she was rated in the 130s as recently as October 2024 – dropping down the rankings on the back of a poor sequence (all horses have them)….
…. and it’s not like she’s on some pathway of terminal regression – because she’s looked the part again this term….
…. producing an eye-catching performance at Haydock last time in the Tommy Whittle and heading into Saturday’s race very much on the up and up….
She’s not out of her grade on Saturday – no way – and that’s my point….
…. the new rule is stopping a horse running that should be running….
How that improves the game I don’t know….
If it’s all about making sure horses run in the right grade….
…. perhaps a better way of ensuring that happens in races like Saturday’s Classic Chase would be introduce a rule that stops horses with ratings of 160+ from taking part….
At least then the genuine handicappers would be getting to run in races that are designed for handicappers….
Bottom line: this new rule needs looking at again….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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