Tuesday, 27th January 2026
In ATC today….
Things are up in the air regarding this weekend – at least in Britain….
…. and I might well end up targeting the big handicaps at the Dublin Racing Festival….
…. where the stats suggest one or two angles of approach are worth bearing in mind for the handicaps….
Oh…. and don’t think you’re going to get rich backing Willie Muillins horses….
Read on….
-----
No winner at the weekend….
…. and I’ve got mixed feelings about New Order getting beaten into second by Dartmoor Pirate at Doncaster….
…. partly because Dartmoor Pirate was on my radar – and my shortlist – for the race….
…. and partly because it’s frustrating that New Order couldn’t get home in front (again!) after working himself into another promising late-race position….
The day was doubly frustrating because I also went the wrong way in the big handicap at Cheltenham….
Donnacha was the last horse off my shortlist – and should have been the bet….
…. but I gave too much credence to Moon D’Orange’s tumbling mark – and his previous win in the race….
…. whilst willfully overlooking less than convincing recent form….
That was an error of judgment – and there’s no getting away from it….
You never stop learning (or relearning) in this game and sometimes….
…. when charging headlong up a blind alley….
…. you wonder whether you’ve ever really learnt anything at all….
-----
New Order ensured the curse of the seconds continues to afflict this column….
I’ve put up stacks of runners-up over the last 18-months or so….
…. and 19 from 113 bets since the beginning of August….
For sure, I’ve put up 10 winners – some at nice prices – in that time….
…. but I can’t help but think how much better the bottom line would look if just two or three of those seconds had gone one place better….
-----
This weekend is up in the air right now….
The hurdle course at Sandown is scheduled for inspection on Thursday morning….
…. and there are plans for an all-chase card if the track fails….
We’d lose the feature handicap – the Heroes Handicap Hurdle….
…. but that can’t be helped….
…. and administrators should be commended for moving quickly to put contingency plans in place….
Entries look healthy for the Sandown chases this morning….
…. but things could cut up with the ground sure to be heavy….
There’s racing at Musselburgh too – offering potential targets on Saturday and Sunday….
…. but – again – it’s going to be a case of waiting for updates on weather and field sizes before settling on targets….
-----
But worry not….
…. we won’t be short of betting action this weekend….
Not with the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) at Leopardstown….
There’s loads of Graded action offering clues for Cheltenham in March….
…. but there are also high-quality handicaps – all guaranteed to produce big fields….
On Saturday we’ve got….
…. the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle over 3m….
…. and the Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase over 2m1f….
And on Sunday we’ve got….
…. the O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase over the extended 2m5f trip….
…. and the Timeless Sash Windows Handicap Hurdle over 2m….
Valuable races…. plenty of runners…. and loads of potential for pricing errors….
…. that’s what we want – and my focus might well end up going that way….
-----
Mention the DRF and Willie Mullins is the first name most punters think of – and with good reason….
…. he’s dominated the non-handicaps – producing 70 winners from 318 runners at 22%....
You wouldn’t have made much money backing them all though – just 4 points at SP….
…. but that’s market efficiency for you….
Mullins hasn’t been the same force in the handicaps – with 8 winners from 131 runners at 6.1%....
…. and a bottom line showing a 60-point loss to level stakes….
If you’re backing one of Willie’s handicappers this weekend, the presence of Paul Townend in the saddle is a positive….
…. the pair are 3 wins and 7 placers from 26 qualifiers….
But the prices weren’t great – only one of the win and place horses was a double-figure price….
…. and that’s the problem with betting obvious angles – everybody else is piling in and the prices suffer….
Emmet Mullins might offer a bit more mileage for value hunters….
…. he’s been both selective and effective with his handicap runners at this meeting….
…. his 9 qualifiers producing 2 winners and three placers….
Again, some of the prices aren’t amazing – punters are aware of the trainer’s ability to target one….
…. but I wouldn’t be frightened of going in early on one of his at a price – and beating the market to the punch….
One trainer who has had multiple horses run big races at big-prices in handicaps at this meeting is Gordon Elliot….
He’s had winners returned at 14s, 20s, & 28s….
…. and placers hit the frame at 50s, 40s, 33s, 25s, 22s, & 16s….
His handicappers have confounded market expectation more than most since the inception of this meeting in 2018….
…. and that’s something worth bearing in mind when he makes his entries – there could be a proper dark horse lurking amongst them….
Most punters will focus on what yard #1 Jack Kennedy rides….
…. but I’m equally interested in what Danny Gilligan is booked for….
He’s booted a few of the big-priced handicappers into the frame for Elliott at this meeting over the last couple of years….
…. and they either put him on horses that are better than the market expects or he’s got the knack of making them outrun their prices….
Either way, he might be good value again this weekend – I’m certainly mindful of it….
-----
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
