Friday, 30th January 2026
In ATC today….
…. I bring you my best picks in Saturday afternoon’s biggest betting heats….
I’m on STAR OF GUITING in the 1.43 at Musselburgh – up at 11s….
…. I’m on KOTMASK at 6s in the 2.02 at Sandown….
…. I’m on HE CAN’T DANCE at 16s in the 2.25 at Leopardstown….
…. I’m on MINELLA MISSILE at 12s in the 3.10 at Sandown….
…. I’m on I AM MAXIMUS at 12s in the 3.30 at Leopardstown….
…. and I’m on GOLDEN JOY at 16s in the 4.05 at Leopardstown….
That’s the summary….
…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….
Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….
Read on….
-----
Leopardstown and Sandown are both subject to inspections tomorrow morning….
…. and I’ve got six picks for you at both those tracks and Musselburgh….
If it feels like overkill, I apologise….
The intention is to cover all bases – so that there’s something to have a bet on whatever beats the weather….
I’ll also be playing on Sunday – so look out for me in your inbox tomorrow morning….
Onwards….
-----
STAR OF GUITING is 4lb out of the handicap in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh (1.43)….
…. but he can still make his presence felt at the general 11s on a track he’s really taken to and on ground that suits….
He’s an improving proposition this term for a new yard that did very well last year with another 2m hurdler – Cracking Rhapsody – and there’s more to come….
The form of his last time out win over course and distance wasn’t done any harm when the runner-up Chase A Fortune produced an improved performance next time out at Sedgefield – bumping into a very progressive winner….
It’s a competitive heat tomorrow, for sure – but outside the ones most fancied in the early betting exchanges, I reckon the 5yo is the form pick with the most go-forward momentum in his profile….
-----
In the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase at Sandown (2.02), I’m backing KOTMASK at the general 6s….
He turns out rated 1lb below his last winning mark….
…. and his last-time-out performance on soft ground over course and distance encourages the view that his time is coming around again….
He was beaten fair and square that last day by Ben Pauling’s Vanderpoel – a progressive chaser likely headed to the Grand Annual at the Festival….
…. but Kotmask showed a lot of good energy in the later stages – sticking to his job and going through the line nicely….
Perhaps the first time blinkers – retained tomorrow – helped….
Whatever, a stiff 2m on soft ground is what I’d be picking out for him….
…. and he can run a big race for the in-form Gary & Josh Moore yard at a track they habitually target….
-----
Gordon Elliott’s got seven in the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (2.25)….
…. and Jack Kennedy – the yard’s principal rider – takes the gig on the not unfancied Son Of Anarchy….
Fair enough but I’m opposing him with stablemate HE CAN’T DANCE at the general 16s – and it’s worth noting that he wasn’t a viable option for Kennedy given that he carries just 10-4….
He’s ridden instead by Danny Gilligan – who I reckon would have had the pick of the rest….
I base that conclusion on the fact that Elliott saddles just two in the 4.05 – and it’s Gilligan and Kennedy who get the leg-up….
I like Gilligan too. He’s run some good races on Elliott handicappers at big prices at this meeting in the previous couple of years – and I think he flies under the radar a bit….
He Can’t Dance steps up in trip for his first run in a handicap after running on well when third in a maiden at Navan on pretty desperate ground earlier this month….
The cheekpieces are on for the first time too….
…. and he could be a big improver for the extra yardage off a mark of just 125 and getting weight off a fair few of the fancied horses….
-----
In the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown (3.10) I’m having another big swing of the bat at MINELLA MISSILE – up at 12s….
He’s dropped a long way down the handicap over the last 12 months but is showing more positive signs out on the track of late….
He gave a decent enough account of himself in the Fitzdares at Windsor on New Year’s Day – his chance evaporating when he smashed through the penultimate hurdle….
…. and he produced another creditable performance at the same venue next time – going through the line well albeit in defeat….
I just think he’s dropped so far down the rankings that it’s only a matter of time before he strikes….
…. and the improvement in his form encourages me to get him on side at the price tomorrow….
…. in what is a valuable handicap for staying hurdlers – one that trainers will have been targeting and working back from for a while….
-----
I can’t resist backing I AM MAXIMUS at the 12s for the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown (3.30)….
Plenty of onlookers will tell you that this race is a part of his prep for a run in the Grand National – and I see that argument….
But he was fit enough last time to run a massive race in the Savills Chase over course and distance at Christmas – keeping on well at the finish….
…. and in tomorrow’s attritional conditions his stamina could come into play once again….
Of course, if he won, he’d be blowing his Grand National mark….
…. but I think connections would surely accept that price if he were to win this race tomorrow….
He’s surely got every right to be fitter and better than last time….
…. and surely he can’t just be turning out for a constitutional with connections giving zero thought to how he might win this G1….
…. and Jack Kennedy is a very interesting booking for riding duties….
-----
Finally, in the Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (4.05), I’m sticking with Elliott and Gilligan and I’m backing GOLDEN JOY at the 16s….
He pulled up on seasonal return at Leopardstown – having seen money – after a mistake cost him his chance….
At Naas earlier this month he finished 4/9 and beaten 13-lengths – but those figures don’t tell the full story….
He travelled into the race really nicely under Jack Kennedy and loomed like he was going to play a big part in the finish before he seemed to run out of fuel at the last fence….
He probably needed it and that run might just have put him spot on for this….
…. and another switcheroo of the headgear – first time blinkers off and visor on – suggests that connections are looking for the adjustment that enables the key to turn….
-----
Now, just to recap….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 1.43 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. In the 2.02 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = It’s 4 & 3 places generally…. In the 2.25 @ Leopardstown….
e/w terms = It’s 6 & 5 places generally…. In the 3.10 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = It’s 4 & 3 places generally…. In the 3.30 @ Leopardstown….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. In the 4.05 @ Leopardstown….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
-----
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back with more tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
