Thursday, 19th February 2026
In ATC today….
The weights for the Grand National were published on Tuesday….
…. every man and his dog in the mainstream racing media has taken a view….
…. but there’s still a big value bet to be had – if you look at things the same way I do….
Oh…. and my man is guaranteed a run on the big day….
Read on….
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The weights for the Grand National were released on Tuesday….
A maximum field of 34 will go to post on the big day – Saturday 11th April….
…. but right now there are still 75 horses with a theoretical chance of lining up….
Earlier this week I distributed my Winning Profile for the Grand National….
…. a breakdown of the metrics that typical winners of the race have conformed to over the last two decades or so….
I certainly haven’t subjected all 75 possible runners to that comprehensive blueprint….
That’s a job for a man with more time on his hands – and more patience to call on – than me….
Instead – where Grand National ante-post betting is concerned….
…. I rely on a much quicker and dirtier method of field-splitting….
I want a horse that’s 7 or 8 years old….
I want a horse that’s raced over fences between six and ten times….
…. and I want a horse that is not a mare….
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Now there’s nothing arbitrary about this methodology….
…. I’m not cutting corners….
…. or relying on some formula that’s diluted to the point of uselessness….
This quick and dirty method of splitting the Grand National field is pretty potent….
…. and it swiftly highlights horses with very strong chances of running really well in the revamped race….
Let me be specific….
The last 60 horses that ticked all three of my boxes heading into the race produced six winners….
…. Many Clouds, One For Arthur, Minella Times, Nobles Yeats, I Am Maximus & Nick Rockett….
…. plus fourteen horses that hit the first six (all placers with bookmakers offering enhanced place terms on the day)….
That’s a total place strike rate of 33.3%....
…. a stellar figure when you consider that we’re dealing with a massive field of runners year-on-year….
The prices – and the betting profits – are there too….
If you’d backed all of the last 60 horses that met my quick and dirty criteria….
…. and if you’d backed them all to the tune of 1pt e/w at SP….
…. you’d be sitting on a tidy betting profit of 119 points….
…. and remember – that figure relates solely to SPs, taking no account of better early prices…. ante-post prices…. Betfair SP…. or Tote win returns….
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Last year this simple methodology led me to back Senior Chief early doors at 66s….
He didn’t win – nobody said this game was easy – but he did give me and the ATC readers who backed him a big run for our money in sixth….
This year I’m making one slight tweak to my approach and requiring my pick to have some genuine speed in its profile….
The Grand National has undergone quite a bit of change in the last few years….
…. reduced field size, reconstructed fences, a repositioned first fence, a standing start, a reduced trip, etc.…
…. and one thing that’s becoming become evident is that if a horse is going to have any chance of winning….
…. then it needs to be able to lie up and remain in its comfort zone off a strong early pace….
Old plodders – the proper stayers that used to excel in the race – are now taken off their feet early doors and too far back when push comes to shove (if they’re still even going)….
…. and I don’t want to be backing one of those….
The other stipulation I have is that I want to back a horse that’s guaranteed a run….
…. I don’t want to be backing something that needs twenty-odd to come out….
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Putting everything together….
…. I’m minded to have a few quid on two candidates this time around….
First up is the Willie Mullins trained IMPAIRE ET PASSE – at the general 50s….
His inclusion in the entries might be viewed as a bit of a headscratcher….
…. given that his experience at staying trips – over hurdles and fences – is strictly limited (you could say non-existent)….
But I’m mindful that Willie Mullins did step the horse up to 3m1f for the G1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown last spring….
…. where we didn’t learn too much because he was brought down by the fall of stablemate Lecky Watson early doors….
And I note that Mullins has given him an entry in the Gold Cup this time around – albeit he’s up at a chancer’s price….
What I read into these placements is that Mullins at least has it on his mind that his horse has potential at a high level over longer trips….
…. and he’d know more about it than most….
The 8yo’s clearly been held back for a spring campaign….
…. running just the once this term at Gowran Park last week – a run that qualified him for the Aintree showpiece….
He’s a five-time G1 winner at trips up to 22f – and if he does stay a proper trip then he’s some tool to have in the box….
He’s guaranteed a run at number 10 on the list, and I think he’s an interesting dark horse at a big price….
The other one I want to back is HANDSTANDS – also up at 66s….
Ben Pauling’s had a fantastic campaign….
…. he’s on-course to saddle more winners than in any previous season….
…. he’s won more money than in any previous season….
…. he’s operating at a strike rate of 21%....
…. he’s building a formidable team of horses down at Naunton….
…. and he’s emerged this term as a genuine top-drawer handler – with plenty of winners on the big days….
He won the King George over Christmas with The Jukebox Man….
…. and he’s been very bullish in his appreciation of Handstands….
…. repeatedly referring to him across the season as a horse he believes can win a Grand National….
…. and consistently pushing the view that his 7yo is really well-handicapped….
He ticks my boxes, he’s got speed, he stays, and he’s very much been targeted at the spring….
Pauling reports that the horse has come out of his spin at Windsor very well (his first go after having his wind done)….
…. and I just think he’s potentially a top-class animal on a good mark and with a big chance off what will be a nice racing weight….
And, of course, the price is okay….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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