Tuesday, 21st July 2026
In ATC today….
Glorious Goodwood starts next week….
…. the big fields present specific challenges….
…. and some jockeys are of more interest to punters than others – albeit on different parts of the track….
Oh…. and they’ve logged 100+ points of betting profit between them in qualifying races….
Read on….
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The Qatar Goodwood Festival starts next week….
…. five days of quality racing on the rooftop of West Sussex….
…. and what makes the races run at this meeting different from those contested at the more run-of-the-mill fixtures held at the track….
…. apart from the scale of the prize money on offer….
…. are the field sizes….
We do get races at Goodwood with 12+ runners outside of this specific Festival….
…. but the lion’s share of the track’s biggest fields this season will be found at next week’s meeting….
…. and races at the track with 12+ runners (whenever in the season they are run and whether they are handicaps or non-handicap races) are worth looking at in isolation….
…. because they tell us a little something about which jockeys might be best-suited to the specific challenges such races present….
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Riding the straight in a big field at Goodwood is a lot more straightforward than riding the bends – that’s for sure….
…. but – that said – there wouldn’t be many strips where top man Ryan Moore has had 32 rides in 12+ runner races since 2016….
…. and not managed to produce a single winner….
…. so it can’t be too straightforward….
Looking at the data yesterday one jockey stands out as interesting in these big-field straight races at Goodwood….
…. and it’s not a name that would instantly spring to mind….
Jason Hart’s won six times over the last decade in qualifying races….
…. at least two more times than any other rider….
…. and he’s only had 21 qualifying starts….
That’s quite the record….
…. and it stands out against the rest of his weighing room colleagues….
All the winners were provided by John Quinn (now training with son Sean)….
…. and you might make the case that Hart has benefited from horses specifically laid out for the meeting….
…. which would be fair enough comment….
But none of those horses ran on auto-pilot….
…. and Hart had to get the job done – against other jockeys who would have had different ideas about preferred outcomes on the day….
Hart deserves a little credit….
…. and if he does turn out in a big-field race up the straight next week….
…. for the Quinn team or whoever….
…. his numbers demand that his mount be given a little consideration….
Note this – had you backed all Hart’s rides on the nose in races up the straight with 12+ runners since the start of 2016 – you’d be sitting on betting profits of 65.4 points….
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The draw plays a big part around the bend over the 7f and 8f trips in races with 12+ runners (handicap or non-handicap)….
…. with horses drawn low at an advantage in big fields – for a couple of reasons….
The high numbers start wide on the track (and climb more of a hill than those drawn inside on account of the track camber)….
…. and jockeys must decide whether to burn crucial energy early doors in order to get across towards the rail….
…. or drop in behind – giving the rest a head start – and then pray they don’t get blocked on the straight….
Those drawn on the inside don’t have it all their own way either….
…. they can go too quick, they can go too slow, and – whatever they do – they’re going to face plenty of challenges up the straight….
Ryan Moore is top of the tree over these specific trips with 10 winners and four places from his 38 qualifying runs….
…. which equates to a total place strike rate of 36.8%....
That’s not bad – but get this….
…. he’s been lethal when getting drawn in stall 7 or lower – with his 20 qualifying rides on that criteria producing all of his 10 winners and three of the additional placers….
…. and the prices were sufficient to make a betting profit of 23.3 points had you backed all the qualifiers on the nose at SP….
…. which – in my book – beats working for a living….
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Going beyond the mile in races around the Goodwood bends with 12+ runners….
…. the historic data highlights William Buick as the man to take an interest in….
His 39 qualifying rides since the beginning of 2016 produced nine winners and five additional placers….
…. at a total place strike rate of 33.3%....
Had you backed all those qualifying rides on the nose – you’d be sitting on a betting profit of 27.2 points to SP….
Of course, what happened yesterday is no guarantee of what will transpire tomorrow….
…. but the numbers don’t lie – and these lads have been a source of serious betting profit on different parts of the Goodwood track across the last decade in races with 12+ runners….
…. And we’re talking to SP – you’d have likely done better at the early prices, on Betfair SP, or on the Tote….
These things are good to know….
…. because I can guarantee that most of the people you’ll be betting against next week don’t….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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