Thursday, 21st January 2016
Good morning, contrarians,
On the menu today….
It’s another competitive edition of the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park this afternoon (3.10) and it would be easy enough to make a case for horses toward the top of the market.
But here at Winning Race Profiles we leave that job to others and instead focus our attention on bringing you a contrarian perspective – our idea of the bet the market is undervaluing at the prices.
Top of the list for this afternoon’s assignment is Mary Louise Hallahan’s MALT GEM – a knocking good each-way bet at the generally available 25s.
The 8yo is still very much unexposed over fences with only 6 runs worth of experience under his belt and he is particularly unexposed at this kind of trip – the only time he’s gone 3 miles+ over the bigger obstacles was when he fell at Fairyhouse this time last term.
He needs to improve but he stays well and I expect this trip to produce a new top – something in advance of what we’ve seen from him to date. If that’s the case, then he’s going to be a player this afternoon.
I am not in the slightest bit concerned with his down-the-field run in a handicap hurdle last time out. I think that run served mainly to keep him on the boil for this race – which has been his primary target this term.
The time before that he won easily at the track over fences and a trip that will be seen as inadequate in hindsight – a performance that saw him raised almost a stone by the handicapper and got him a mark enabling him to run today.
Connections did think about the Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle last week – because of the tempting levels of prize money on offer. But they were worried about the horse going well and then having to hump more weight round today. Those are the right kind of worries to be hearing about and I think there’s a bit of confidence behind this lad.
He’s a dual winner over fences at Gowran Park, he will like the ground, the trip should bring out more than we have seen to date and I think the price is a grand prospect on that basis.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap where the value is in this afternoon’s Thyestes Handicap Chase….
That is my take on tomorrow’s target races. You will no doubt have your own ideas – and that’s exactly as it should be. You can watch the action unfold live on ATR.
That’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for more contrarian big-race insight & analysis tomorrow.
Winning Race Profiles