Saturday, 30th April 2016
Good evening, contrarians,
On the menu today….
Over the last 16 years the average Dosage Index (DI) figure for the winner of the 1000 Guineas has been 1.67.
The average Centre of Distribution (CD) figure over the same period amounts to 0.37….
On those figures one filly in tomorrow’s 1000 Guineas field has an almost ideal mix of speed and stamina for tomorrow’s challenge – and that horse is neither Minding or Lumiere, the two horses most prominent in the overnight betting….
The horse I’m talking about trades at a big price. And that’s not necessarily a negative sign in a race in which plenty have hit the frame at big double-figure prices since the turn of the century.
TURRET ROCKS, runs out of the yard of Jim Bolger – a man not in the habit of wasting entries in this race.
His last 8 runners have produced a win and 4 placed finishes. Even the ones that haven’t manged to place have done enough to show that they deserved their places in a classic line up as overall form-figures of 71362362 serve to illustrate.
No trainer wants to over-exert and bottom-out a good horse this early in the season – not when there are so many valuable and prestigious prizes to play for further down the line. Jim Bolger is a man of discrimination. His record shows as much. When he sends one for this race, it is generally ready to give a good account of itself.
With that in mind, and with Turret Rocks trading at a nice each-way price of 20s this evening, I am looking no further for my bet.
She hasn’t got a great deal to find with Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle who beat her just 1.25 lengths on good ground in Paris at the back end of last season. That one trades at half the price for tomorrow’s race – more as a result of reputation and postcode than anything else because nothing more has been achieved on the track since. The 20s about Turret Rock is value.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going in tomorrow’s 1000 Guineas (3.40)….
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for more contrarian big-race insight & analysis as the week goes on.
Against the Crowd