Where my contrarian money is going at Royal Ascot - Day 3....

Last Updated: 15.06.2016

Wednesday, 15th June 2016

Good afternoon, contrarians,

On the menu today….

  • Moving on to Day 3 at Royal Ascot….
  • Where the Indicator stats point in the Ribblesdale Stakes (3.40)….
  • Back the Cumani horse in the Gold Cup (4.20)….
  • Two against the field in the Britannia (5.00)….

Moving on to Day 3 at Royal Ascot….

The rain continues to make its presence felt. The ground remains on the soft side as of Wednesday afternoon.

The big betting races on Thursday, as far as I’m concerned, are the Gold Cup (over what will be a very testing 2 miles and 4 furlongs on the prevailing ground) and the Britannia Stakes (a handicap event over the straight mile for the 3yos)….

We’ll get on to my contrarian selections – my idea of where the value lies – for those races in a moment.

First, I want to take a swift look at where the Indicator stats point in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes – a race for the 3yo fillies over the 12f trip….

Where the Tricast Indicator points in the Ribblesdale Stakes….

Our Indicator tool expresses an assortment of opinions. It highlights which horses rank as ‘win’ and ‘place’ finishers on a series of scales relating to ratings, strike-rates and other measures.

Take a look and you’ll see that Multiple horses in tomorrow’s Ribblesdale Stakes ‘win’ (yellow) or ‘place’ (blue) on at least one opinion scale. But some score better than others.

Taken as a whole, the data predicts the following horses will fill the first 3 spaces home….

  • Architecture
  • We Are Ninety
  • Black Princess

A Combination Tricast offers a tilt at a potentially big prize for a low downside investment. I play purely for fun….

 

Back the Cumani horse in the Gold Cup….

Luca Cumani is a very fine trainer of stayers and this time last year his MIZZOU was strongly fancied to win this race – sent off at 7/2.

In the event he got too far back under William Buick off a less-than-ideal pedestrian pace and whilst he wasn’t beaten far in the end, he was never going to land a blow given how the race panned out.

This time round he turns up having won the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot for the second year running – producing a slightly better performance – but comes into tomorrow’s race trading at 12s.

I reckon he’s improved from 4- to 5-years-old – he’ll be another year stronger for sure – and represents a better proposition this time round at more than 3 times the price.

The trip is not a concern, he acts on cut and Andrea Atzeni – who has won twice on the horse – is in the plate. I think there’s some each-way value in the whole deal.

Two against the field in the Britannia….

William Haggas has a pretty decent record in the Britannia. So too does Ryan Moore. That pair combine in tomorrow’s renewal with Out And About – widely considered a Group horse contesting a handicap.

The market hasn’t missed or ignored the jungle drums and the son of Fastnet Rock has been backed into favouritism – 10/1 favouritism but favouritism all the same.

A massive field of 33 runners goes to post and the one I’m most interested in is the one that Out And About beat just a length last time out at Haydock over 7f – Dean Ivory’s FIGHTING TEMERAIRE.

He can be backed at 20s – twice the price – despite only being beaten a length, despite being weighted to reverse the form, and despite being rated a Group horse in waiting by his own connections.

After the Haydock race Ivory he’d like to take the Haggas horse on again but didn’t think he’d get the opportunity. He does tomorrow and over an extra furlong and at the revised weights his charge has every chance of being way more competitive than the disparity between the two prices suggests. I think the 20s is a nice each-way play with plenty of the bookies sure to pay-out on 5 places.

The other one I want to take an each-way flier on is Johnny Murtagh’s PACODALI who can be backed at a big 50s.

He hasn’t managed to win a maiden yet but back in May at the Curragh he certainly wasn’t disgraced at level weights behind subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Awtaad and the horse that placed behind Awtaad in that race, Blue De Vega.

Connections must be disappointed that he isn’t off the mark yet but he’s an interesting runner in this race. He gives the impression that soft ground and a mile will be perfect for him and George baker is a very interesting booking on the straight at Ascot.

I can’t resist the odds and I reckon he will out-run them. It’s as simple as that.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going on Thursday afternoon….

In the Gold Cup (4.20)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – MIZZOU each-way (12s generally)

In the Britannia Stakes (5.00)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – FIGHTING TEMERAIRE each-way (20s generally) & PACODALI each-way (50s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

 

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with my take on Friday’s races at the Royal meeting.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd