Where my contrarian money is going at Royal Ascot - Day 4....

Last Updated: 16.06.2016

Thursday, 16th June 2016

Good afternoon, contrarians,

On the menu today….

  • The action on Day 4 at Royal Ascot….
  • Where the Indicator points in the Coronation Stakes (4.20)….
  • The Haggas horse is the value in the Coronation Stakes (4.20)….
  • Each-way value in the Commonwealth Cup (3.40)….
  • Get with the Rhythm in the Duke of Edinburgh (5.00)….

The action on Day 4 at Royal Ascot….

It is the Coronation Stakes (the G1 for the 3yo fillies), the Commonwealth Cup (the G1 sprint for the 3yos) and the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (a handicap for horses aged 3yo+ over the 12f trip) that attract me as betting heats on Day 4 of the Royal meeting at Ascot….

We’ll get on to my contrarian selections – my idea of where the value lies – for those races in a moment.

First, I want to take a look at where the Tricast Indicator stats point in the G1 Coronation Stakes (4.20).

Where the Tricast Indicator points in the Coronation Stakes….

Our Indicator tool expresses an assortment of opinions. It highlights which horses rank as ‘win’ and ‘place’ finishers on a series of scales relating to ratings, strike-rates and other measures.

Multiple horses in tomorrow’s Coronation Stakes ‘win’ (yellow) or ‘place’ (blue) on at least one opinion scale. But some score better than others. Taken as a whole, the data predicts the following horses will fill the first 3 spaces home….

  • Jet Setting
  • Nemoralia
  • Besharah

A Combination Tricast offers a tilt at a potentially big prize for a low downside investment. I play purely for fun….

The Haggas horse is the value in the Coronation Stakes….

BESHARAH made her name as a juvenile in the sprints – winning the G3 Princess Margaret at Ascot and the G2 Lowther Stakes at York – the former success achieved on soft ground.

She didn’t go beyond the 6f trip until trying 7f on her seasonal debut at Chelmsford on the all-weather. She ran a long way below form on that day – albeit she wasn’t beaten far. It was the first time she had tried an AW surface and she might well have needed the run.

After that William Haggas sent her to France where she tried a mile for the first time in the French 1000 Guineas. She certainly wasn’t disgraced in 4th place and she wasn’t far away from proving conclusively that she gets the mile. Connections have chosen this event over the Commonwealth Cup – which suggests they see the mile as the thing for her going forward.

She shows up at Ascot today the most unexposed filly at the mile trip and with form on soft-ground and at the track I reckon she’s well over-priced at a general 20s and 25s with Stan James. I’ll be going in each-way.

Each-way value in the Commonwealth Cup….

The Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock is the race most strongly influencing the market for this season’s renewal of the Commonwealth Cup and it is fair enough that Quiet Reflection and Donjuan Triumphant head the betting.

The former beat the latter more than 3 lengths on Merseyside – but there is plenty of reason for believing the latter can turn the form around.

Richard Fahey’s charge was having his first run of the season and he was running on drying ground that was less than ideal for him. With a run under his belt and softer ground underfoot he can certainly close the gap on the filly.

But neither make much appeal at the prices and, with the ground looking to have gone against some of those entered in the field, I’m minded to side with Henry Candy’s LA RIOJA at a general 12s and 14s with Paddy Power.

She too was in that Haydock race and under-performed on the day. Maybe she needed the run. Maybe the yard’s lack of form expressed itself in her below-par effort. Whatever, she has solid form on soft ground – good enough for to suggest she can take a hand tomorrow if she’s on-song.

The yard is still struggling for winners but more have been running up-to-form recently and on Friday La Rioja was sent to Newbury for a bit of extra work. Henry Candy reported that the horse was pleasing him and the fact she’s turned up suggests she’s showing enough to justify taking her chance.

At the price I’m willing to chance her each-way with one of the bookies up with place terms of 1/4 1-2-3.

Get with the Rhythm in the Duke of Edinburgh….

RARE RHYTHM only ran twice as a 3-year-old. Connections clearly saw him as one for this year rather than last and on top of that soft-ground appears to be necessary for the son of Dubawi.

He shows up here without the benefit of a prep-run and will have to be on-song first-time-up for Charlie Appleby and William Buick.

But I’m not too concerned about that. Last autumn he showed up at Newmarket off a break and was in very good shape – good enough shape to win a decent enough handicap on his first go at 12f.

Connections know how to get him right at home and if he’s on-song tomorrow afternoon this unexposed and very promising 4yo can outrun the generally available odds of 14s.

The ground has certainly come right for him – and that’s the key. I’ll be supporting this unexposed and progressive type each-way.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going on Friday afternoon….

In the Coronation Stakes (4.20)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – BESHARAH each-way (25s Stan James & 20s generally)

In the Commonwealth Cup (3.40)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – LA RIOJA each-way (14s Paddy Power & 12s generally)

In the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (5.00)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – RARE RHYTHM each-way (14s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with my take on Saturday’s race at the Royal meeting.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd