Wednesday, 16th November 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
No runner for David Pipe in this season’s edition of the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle – run at Haydock on Saturday….
He’s won the race with 3 horses in recent times – Grands Crus (2010), Dynaste (2011) & Gevrey Chambertin (2013) – but he hasn’t got one to pull out of the hat this time around.
Nor has Nick Williams – another dual winner of the race with Diamond Harry (2008) & Aubusson (2014).
The only winning trainer across the last decade who is slated to have runners in this weekend’s edition is Dan Skelton whose Baradari won the race last year (we were on at 14s if I remember correctly).
That was Skelton’s first and only runner in the race to date. Born Survivor and Two Taffs look like being his representatives on Saturday.
At 5- and 6-years-old respectively, they are at the right age for this contest. That’s what the stats say. All the last 11 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
The 5yos have enjoyed the edge. The last 26 to go to post produced 5 winners and 8 placers (another 2 finished 5th) – all those winners came in the last 6 years.
At the other end of the age scale, 75 horses aged 8+ have taken their chance over the last 11 years. None managed a win – though 12 did place.
The French-bred horses have strong record. The last 44 runners produced 6 winners and an additional 11 placers – 40% of the top-4 finishes available over the last 11 years from just 25% of the overall runners.
The better horses – those rated highest and carrying most weight – have the best record. Only two of the last 11 winners carried less than 10-13 to victory.
Absolute top-weights have a fair record. The last 13 horses to carry 11-12 or more produced 3 wins and 3 places. Slacken the parameters to include all horses carrying 11-07 or more and the record reads 4 wins and 5 places from 30 qualifiers.
The stats reveal that lightly-raced horses have had the edge over the last decade or so. Nine of the last 11 winners had raced no more than 11 times over hurdles – 7 had had no more than half a dozen such races.
Of course, as I’ve been saying over the last fortnight or so, stats are not a stand-alone selection tool. In the end, it all boils down to the individual horses. All the stats can do is guide you to horses of potential interest. And horses that tick most, though not necessarily all, of the above boxes are clearly worthy of closer scrutiny.
The Haydock meeting is a 2-day affair – with racing on Friday as well as Saturday.
I know that plenty of readers of this column don’t sit idle waiting for me to put up bets. I know that many of you bet throughout the week and that some of you will be playing both days at Haydock – and in plenty of races I won’t be targeting.
With that in mind I thought it might be worth sharing a couple of pointers from a dataset I was looking over yesterday – data relating to jumps races run at Haydock over the last two years.
I think many of you will know as well as I do that when you look at the performance stats at any top track, you are going to see the same old names show up as top performers.
For example, it will come as no surprise that Paul Nicholls has done well with 7 winners from his last 27 runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies too – with 8 winners from his last 39.
It will also come as no great shock that neither handler shows a level stakes betting profit despite producing more winners than anybody else over the review period. The market is well and truly onto their horses.
This column exists to try and tell you something useful that you maybe aren’t aware of. Which is why I draw your attention this morning to Sue Smith.
She’s got a very solid record at the track – her last 53 runners producing 7 winners and 22 points of betting profit. Plenty of additional runners have gone close – she has a place strike rate at Haydock of 45% over the last 2 years.
She clearly likes sending horses to the venue – and her track-record tells us that she frequently sends her runners in sufficient shape to give a good account of themselves. It’s something to bear in mind later this week.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success, of course. But trainers are creatures of habit and anything she sends out on Friday or Saturday is very much worth the onceover.
Danny Cook is the preferred jockey on Smith’s horses. His 2-year record for her at the track reads 3 wins and 9 places from 20 runs. Backed to win the pair have combined to produce 30 points of profit for punters.
Just a little something to add to the pot for the weekend….
It’s been a slow start to the season for Willie Mullins. He’s only sent out 31 runners since 1st October.
The strike rate is what you’d expect from the top man – with 10 of those going in at 32.2%. But the total number of runners is the lowest Mullins has had at this stage of the season since the 2012/2013 campaign….
People are starting to ask questions. Journalists mainly. They have lots of space and airtime to fill – and where no real news exists they are happy to create some.
Mullins was answering questions about his slow start yesterday. He’s ‘not concerned at all’ about it. He told reporters: ‘The weather has been so unseasonal. It was like September this morning on the gallops, incredibly warm, and basically we’re waiting on the ground.’
He also said: ‘Ruby Walsh said to me we only had the one runner at that Navan Sunday meeting a year ago, too, so it’s not unusual for us to have so few runners at this time of year.’
That last bit isn’t quite true. This time last year Mullins had sent out more than double the runners he has this term – and more in the two seasons previous.
Of course, he’s lost some horses – with the removal of the Gigginstown string from his care. And that might account for some of the slack.
In any case, there is little cause for concern. The last time Mullins had so few runners out by mid-November – in the 2012/13 season – it didn’t stop him picking up his usual big quota of G1 winners. He had 23 by the time they pulled stumps on the season.
It’s a long season. The slow start might end up working in his favour. I wouldn’t bet against it at this stage.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back with more tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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