Thursday, 17th November 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
Saturday’s Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle at Haydock is one of those races characterised by an idiosyncrasy that is seldom found in other races….
It is a handicap hurdle event. But the fixed brush hurdles they will race over are more like mini-fences.
On the one hand, you might think of Saturday’s race as a transition point between hurdles and fences – a halfway house between the two jumps codes. On the other you can look at it as a hurdle race in which horses with chasing experience are very much in the mix….
Four of the last 11 renewals of the race were won by horses with experience over the big obstacles – which is not a bad return in a race where horses with fencing experience are the minority. Plenty others with chasing form in the book have placed over the last decade.
From a betting perspective, the half-way house aspect of the race offers an interesting line of inquiry.
It is a hurdle race. The field run off their official hurdle ratings. But the bottom line is that the race offers a canny trainer the opportunity to run a chaser off a hurdle mark lower than his chase mark – in an environment where chasers can excel.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that this angle constitutes an infallible guide to finding the winner. A lot of other things need to suit and/or to fall into place….
All I’m suggesting is that there is a potential advantage on offer for the right horse. And that horses fitting this profile are worthy of the onceover when you come to look at the race.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Ballybolley is one example of a horse running of a potentially kind hurdle mark.
He’s been rated as high as 143 over fences – though he’s dropped to 137 in recent times – and is slated to run on Saturday off a hurdle mark of 134.
He certainly won’t lack for fitness – Twiston-Davies likes to run his horses and the 7yo has been out 4 times over fences since mid-September.
Last time out he ran with credit in defeat giving 10lbs to a horse rated just 2lb inferior when they lined up at the start.
He has a win at Haydock in the book – albeit over 2 miles and 4 furlongs, he’s unexposed at Saturday’s trip and the yard has been sending out winners over the last 7 days.
The problem for him might be the ground. His better form has come on a genuine surface. It is soft at Haydock this morning – with more rain forecast over the next 48 hours.
Thomas Crapper is another horse getting an opportunity to take advantage of a hurdle marker that is plenty lower than his current chase rating.
At 9-years-old he is older than you’d like – given the stats for this race which we looked at yesterday – but he’s currently rated 133 over fences, won a chase handicap off 134 as recently as April and has been rated as high as 139 over hurdles. On Saturday, he gets to run off a hurdle mark of just 126.
He needs be good enough to capitalize, of course. Having an advantage and the opportunity to make hay from it are not the same thing as actually doing it.
But he ran a reasonable enough race in last week’s BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham with a first-time tongue-tie added to the cheek-pieces. He finished 6th – beaten 15 lengths – but it was step in the right direction and he’s been better for each of his three runs this term.
But, as with Ballybolley, you’d have to worry about the ground. This is a horse whose best efforts have come on a sound surface – certainly on surfaces no worse than good to soft – and underfoot conditions might not be on his side come the weekend.
Kruzhlinin is also older than you’d like at 9. But a chase mark of 146 and a hurdle mark of 136 make for a nice contrast given the specific circumstances of Saturday’s race – and the disparity between the two marks is clearly to his benefit.
He’s already had a spin over hurdles this term – at Aintree at the start of the month in first-time blinkers where he gave weight to the two who finished ahead of him.
The winner, Caid Du Berlais, beat him just under 10 lengths in receipt of 3lbs. That one re-opposes on Saturday on much worse terms – albeit with a 5lb claim booked to ride – and is half the price in the market.
Kruzhlinin has run in two Grand Nationals and you’d imagine that race will be the long-term target again. After the Aintree hurdle race the vibe was that the horse would go to Aintree again for the Becher Chase in early December – a traditional route for a Grand National horse.
There was no talk of Saturday’s race. Yet the horse is turning out anyway. Maybe Philip Hobbs is simply using Saturday’s race to get him spot-on for that Becher assignment? Maybe connections fancy shooting for some prize money on Saturday without affecting the horse’s chasing mark?
Hard to know. But the gulf between his current chasing and hurdling mark is noteworthy – and potentially very much to his advantage.
These are just thoughts and observations based on my own bits of research. Make of them what you will.
As is the case with quite a lot of research, it might not ultimately lead to anything concrete. It is often a case of looking to see what is there – always in the knowledge that the nets might not come up containing fish that are good to eat.
I still have more work to do and other angles to pursue. This is how it is with the big races – it’s case of exploring the angles and building up a diverse body of intelligence ahead of taking a final view at the prices.
I’ll be using the rest of the day and tomorrow morning to continue that process – before arriving at my conclusions. I’ll be back with you tomorrow afternoon to share those.
Until then, stay tuned.
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